The world of cryptocurrency continues to evolve at a breakneck pace, presenting both seasoned and emerging investors with a dynamic landscape of risk and reward. As we step into 2024, market sentiment has shifted toward optimism—driven by macroeconomic tailwinds like anticipated rate cuts, the Bitcoin halving, and the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. With these catalysts in motion, understanding effective secondary market investment strategies and long-term asset allocation has never been more crucial.
This deep dive explores the insights of three experienced Web3 investors—老陆 (Lao Lu), 墨客 (Moke), and Lawrence—who share their methodologies, lessons learned, and outlook for the coming cycle. From portfolio structuring to navigating market psychology, their collective wisdom offers a comprehensive framework for thriving in the current environment.
Defining Investment Goals in a Volatile Market
Before diving into tactics, it’s essential to establish clear investment objectives. Each investor approaches goal-setting differently, reflecting their unique philosophies.
Lao Lu emphasizes relative performance over fixed targets. His primary benchmark is outperforming Bitcoin (BTC), a challenging but meaningful metric. After recovering losses from 2022 by December 2023, he noticed a psychological dip in motivation—a reminder that achieving one goal requires setting the next. He now compares his current portfolio against past positions to assess progress objectively, avoiding emotional comparisons with others’ returns.
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Moke takes a more philosophical approach. Rather than chasing specific profit numbers, he focuses on catching market momentum. His goal? To identify and deeply engage with at least one-third of major market movements—whether memecoins, NFTs, or new Layer 2 narratives. He also prioritizes survival: “The ultimate goal is to stay in the game.” Given the industry’s volatility and frequent black swan events (e.g., FTX collapse, Luna crash), longevity often trumps short-term gains.
Lawrence uses a quantifiable model: aim to outperform a BTC+ETH portfolio during bull markets and maintain resilience in bear cycles. His baseline target is beating half the combined return of BTC and ETH when conditions are unfavorable. This structured yet flexible approach allows him to adapt while maintaining discipline.
Asset Allocation: Staying Focused on What You Know
When asked about diversifying outside crypto—into real estate, stocks, or traditional finance—the consensus was clear: focus on your circle of competence.
Lawrence experimented with港股 (Hong Kong stocks) and property during 2021 but found those investments underperformed compared to holding BTC and ETH through the downturn. Today, with stablecoins yielding up to 30% annually in some DeFi protocols, he sees little incentive to move capital off-chain.
Moke divides his strategy into offense and defense. Offensively, he allocates heavily to crypto because it’s both in an upward cycle and within his domain of deep expertise. Defensively, he acknowledges the need for fallback assets like gold or USD—but only as insurance, not income generators. He stresses that black swan risks in crypto mean even the most confident investors should hedge with simple, durable assets.
Lao Lu shares similar views. While he owns property, it’s for personal use, not investment. He warns against the common trap of assuming success in one field translates to another: “Many who excel in crypto fail badly in equities or real estate.” His advice? Master your niche and avoid overconfidence.
"Only invest where you have edge and understanding. The market rewards specialization."
Core Secondary Investment Strategies
Lao Lu: The Disciplined Contrarian
Lao Lu identifies as a left-side investor, specializing in buying undervalued assets during bear markets. His process follows four steps:
- Screening: Prioritizes projects listed on centralized exchanges (CEX) for better liquidity.
- Analysis: Evaluates trading volume, market cap, and circulation rate—ideally above 60% to ensure clean holder distribution.
- Positioning: Avoids picking winners between similar projects; instead, allocates proportionally across promising ones.
- Exit Planning: Uses metrics like trading volume vs. circulating supply and open interest (OI) spikes to time exits.
He advocates for TWAP (time-weighted average price) selling during rallies—selling 10% daily over ten days for large positions—to avoid mistiming peaks.
Moke: Respect the Market’s Wisdom
Moke’s strategy rests on four principles:
- Respect the market: Even if a trend seems irrational (like Bitcoin ordinals), follow it. Markets often reveal truths before logic does.
- Fundamental awareness: Distinguish between short-lived hype and projects with lasting value (e.g., Blur as NFT trading leader).
- Adopt a retail mindset in bull markets: Embrace FOMO-driven moves; they generate outsized returns.
- Always back the leader: "The龙头 (dragon head) leads every cycle." Whether it’s Ordinals or Solana-based tokens, leadership compounds.
He illustrates this with ORDI, which his fund initially dismissed due to technical inefficiency but later embraced as “Bitcoin’s first meme coin”—leveraging BTC’s unmatched legitimacy.
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Lawrence: Balancing Value and Hype
Lawrence splits his approach:
- Core holdings: Focus on high-consensus assets like BTC and ETH using left-side entry points.
- Satellite positions: Allocate small amounts to speculative plays—especially those defying logic (“IQ50” trades).
He notes a key shift: in bull markets, attention becomes more valuable than fundamentals. Chasing narratives early can yield higher returns than waiting for proof of utility.
Daily Routines That Build Edge
All three investors stress consistent routines:
- Lao Lu spends 1–2 hours daily in bear markets, up to 8+ in bull runs. Activities include scanning news feeds (Twitter, Telegram), tracking OI changes, reviewing on-chain data (e.g., Birdeye), and studying peer analyses.
- Moke dedicates time to reading deep-dive research and evaluating new project mechanics. He also re-evaluates previously passed-on early-stage opportunities when secondary valuations surge—a sign of misalignment between private and public markets.
- Lawrence monitors portfolio projects via CoinGecko and studies trending tokens on DexScreener. He tracks CVD (cumulative volume delta) and OI shifts to detect accumulation phases.
They all warn against information overload: consuming data without synthesis leads to noise, not insight.
Top Opportunities for 2024–2025
Despite differing styles, their outlook converges:
- Gaming & GameFi: With Binance surpassing 170M users and MPC wallet adoption rising, user growth enables complex in-game economies. Projects capturing user time will monetize attention.
- Layer 2 & ZK-Rollups: The upcoming Cancun upgrade will catalyze activity across rollup ecosystems. Watch for low-cap L2s with strong developer momentum.
- Bitcoin L2 & BTCFi: Despite imperfect designs today (e.g., non-native gas tokens), innovation is accelerating. Expect cleaner solutions post-halving.
- AI + Crypto: AI drives narrative momentum regardless of immediate utility. As long as tech advances continue (e.g., Apple AI integration), “AI-tagged” tokens will rally.
- DePIN: Still speculative (“old wine in new bottles”), but Solana-based DePIN tokens show promise. Monitor real-world usage trends.
- Meme Coins: A cultural force attracting new users. While risky, they offer high beta exposure during euphoric phases.
- Restaking (LSDFi evolution): Protocols like EigenLayer extend security across chains—key infrastructure for multi-chain scaling.
- SocialFi: Long-awaited but still nascent. Watch Lens Protocol and Farcaster for signs of traction.
RWA (real-world assets) like tokenized Treasuries are currently deprioritized due to superior yields within crypto.
Hard-Earned Lessons from Past Mistakes
Reflecting on past errors reveals powerful insights:
- Avoid excessive leverage: Both Moke and Lao Lu cite massive losses from futures trading. Contracts amplify risk without building lasting knowledge.
- Manage liquidity risk: Even uncorrelated assets suffer during system-wide shocks (e.g., Terra crash impacting Solana).
- Cut emotional attachments: Holding legacy DeFi tokens from 2020–2021 creates mental baggage that hinders participation in new cycles.
- Don’t ignore narratives: Lawrence regrets overlooking OHM due to aesthetic bias—an example of how prejudice blinds investors to opportunity.
“Don’t fall in love with a coin. Markets move fast—your portfolio should too.”
Balancing Investment Intensity with Life
Bull markets demand immense focus—but sustainability matters.
- Lao Lu sacrifices late-night opportunities for health and relationships.
- Moke, now a father, advises delaying major life events during peak cycles and delegating tasks via team分工.
- Lawrence stresses physical wellness: regular exercise offsets sedentary work and mental fatigue.
Alex closes with practical advice: supplement vitamin D due to limited sun exposure—a common deficiency among crypto professionals linked to fatigue and mood issues.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Should I diversify outside crypto?
A: Only if you have expertise in other markets. Most experts recommend focusing on your core strengths—especially when on-chain yields exceed traditional alternatives.
Q: How do I know when a trend is peaking?
A: Watch for volume spikes on major exchanges (e.g., Binance), social media frenzy, and when a token’s trading volume exceeds its market cap—a sign of speculative mania.
Q: Is leverage ever justified?
A: Rarely. Futures trading lacks compounding value; research does. Use leverage sparingly, if at all, and never risk critical capital.
Q: What’s the best way to track market shifts?
A: Review top gainers on CoinGecko daily and monitor OI changes on platforms like Bybit or OKX to catch emerging narratives early.
Q: How much time should I spend investing daily?
A: 1–2 hours in bear markets; 6–8+ during bull runs. Prioritize quality analysis over constant monitoring.
Q: Can I succeed without following every trend?
A: Yes—but you must catch major ones. Aim to identify at least 30–50% of significant movements through disciplined observation.
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