Binance and Major Exchanges See $12.4B XRP Outflow — Is a Supply Squeeze Next?

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The cryptocurrency world is buzzing as over $12.4 billion worth of XRP has been withdrawn from major exchanges in just one week. This dramatic shift, highlighted by data from CryptoQuant, shows a massive movement of 5.736 billion XRP tokens since June 18 — nearly 10% of the total 58.9 billion XRP currently in circulation. The scale and speed of this outflow have sparked widespread speculation: is the market on the verge of a supply squeeze?

Exchange Reserves Plummet

Upbit, the South Korean exchange once holding the largest XRP reserves among centralized platforms, now leads the list of biggest losers. Its XRP holdings plunged from 6.069 billion on June 18 to just 1.08 billion, a staggering drop of nearly 5 billion tokens. This single exchange accounted for the lion’s share of the outflow, fueling concerns and curiosity across the crypto community.

Binance, another major player, also saw significant withdrawals. Its XRP reserves fell from 2.855 billion to 2.238 billion, a loss of 617 million tokens. While not as dramatic as Upbit’s decline, it still signals strong user activity and a potential shift in market behavior.

Other exchanges followed suit, albeit on a smaller scale:

Such concentrated outflows suggest that investors may be moving their assets off exchanges — possibly into cold storage — in anticipation of long-term holding or upcoming market developments.

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What’s Driving the XRP Exodus?

Analysts are closely watching these movements for clues about market sentiment. Mr. Xoom, a well-known crypto analyst, pointed to the massive withdrawals as a potential sign of an impending supply shock. When large volumes of a cryptocurrency exit exchanges, it reduces the amount available for immediate trading, which can tighten supply and drive prices higher — especially if demand remains steady or increases.

Remi Relief, another prominent voice in the space, reacted to the data with urgency: “I’ve been telling you guys… stash your XRP. Get it off the exchanges. Supply Shock Incoming…$25–$75 XRP.” While such price predictions are speculative, they reflect growing optimism within the community.

But what caused this sudden exodus? There are several plausible explanations:

Could a Spot XRP ETF Be the Catalyst?

The launch of the Purpose XRP ETF on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) on June 18 marked a pivotal moment for XRP adoption. Within days, it amassed C$32 million in assets under management, signaling strong institutional and retail interest.

This success adds pressure on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to reconsider its stance on spot XRP ETF applications. If approved, a U.S.-based ETF could unlock billions in new capital and dramatically increase demand for XRP — especially if supply continues to dwindle on exchanges.

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Market Sentiment and Derivatives Data

Beyond exchange flows, derivatives data offers deeper insight into trader behavior. Over the past week:

This divergence suggests traders aren’t exiting positions — they’re holding. A decline in volume with rising open interest often indicates consolidation, where market participants wait for clearer directional signals before making large moves.

Options markets echo this trend:

Increased open interest in options implies more investors are positioning for future volatility — possibly betting on a breakout once key catalysts like ETF approvals or legal resolutions emerge.

XRP Technical Outlook: Signs of Recovery?

Despite reduced trading activity, technical indicators suggest potential bullish momentum building.

Currently, XRP trades at $2.19**, with **$2.71 billion in 24-hour trading volume — proof that underlying market activity remains robust despite exchange outflows.

However, resistance looms near $2.23, where the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) sits. While XRP holds above the 200-day SMA (a bullish sign), breaking through the 50-day SMA will be critical for sustained upward movement.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Why are so many XRP tokens leaving exchanges?

Large-scale withdrawals often indicate users moving funds to private wallets for long-term holding or security reasons. In this case, anticipation of regulatory clarity or ETF approvals may be motivating holders to secure their assets off centralized platforms.

Can an exchange outflow cause a price increase?

Yes. When supply on exchanges decreases while demand stays constant or grows, it can create upward price pressure. Limited liquidity on exchanges may lead to sharper price movements during buy surges.

What does a rising open interest mean for XRP?

Rising open interest in futures and options suggests that traders are opening new positions rather than closing them. This often precedes increased volatility and can signal confidence in upcoming price moves.

How might a spot XRP ETF impact the market?

A spot ETF would allow traditional investors to gain exposure to XRP without holding the asset directly. This could bring institutional capital into the ecosystem, boost liquidity, and reduce selling pressure from short-term traders.

Is the Upbit outflow likely due to a hack or error?

There’s no evidence of a security breach. Most experts believe the movement was intentional — either user-driven withdrawals or internal rebalancing by the exchange.

What’s the significance of XRP staying above the 200-day SMA?

Holding above the 200-day SMA is generally seen as a strong bullish signal, indicating long-term investor confidence and sustained buying support.

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Final Thoughts

The recent $12.4 billion XRP outflow from Binance, Upbit, and other major exchanges is more than just a statistical anomaly — it’s a potential harbinger of structural change in the XRP market. Whether driven by ETF anticipation, geopolitical shifts, or long-term accumulation strategies, this movement reflects growing confidence among holders.

With technical indicators turning positive, derivatives markets showing consolidation, and global adoption accelerating through regulated products like ETFs, XRP may be positioning itself for its next major chapter.

As always, investors should remain informed, monitor developments closely, and make decisions based on thorough research — not speculation.

This article is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. The content does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.