Bitcoin recently surged toward the $111,000 mark, triggering a wave of buy-side liquidity before showing clear signs of rejection. After a powerful rally, the market is now pausing, and both technical and on-chain indicators suggest a potential pullback or consolidation phase. Traders are closely watching key support and resistance levels to determine the next directional move.
As Bitcoin adjusts after its aggressive climb, understanding the underlying market structure becomes crucial for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
Technical Outlook: Signs of a Cooling Rally
Daily Chart – Bullish Structure Intact, But Caution Ahead
Bitcoin’s recent rejection from the $111,000 supply zone highlights a critical resistance area. This level had previously acted as a magnet for price, drawing in momentum buyers. However, after briefly touching that zone and absorbing liquidity above the January–February highs, BTC reversed sharply.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled and now sits near the neutral 50 level, signaling a loss of upward momentum. While this doesn’t confirm a reversal, it does indicate that bullish pressure is easing.
Despite the pullback, the broader trend remains constructive. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages are still positioned below current price levels—around $90,000 to $95,000—and maintain a bullish alignment. This suggests long-term support remains intact.
A fair value gap (FVG) exists between $98,000 and $101,000. Such gaps often act as short-term magnets for price, drawing BTC downward to "fill" the imbalance. If price drops into this zone and finds strong buying interest, it could establish a new higher low—potentially setting up another leg toward $111,000 or even $114,000.
👉 Discover how market cycles influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory with real-time analytics.
For now, the critical demand zone lies around $91,000. As long as Bitcoin holds above this level, the overall bullish structure remains valid. A break below would signal deeper weakness and could shift sentiment dramatically.
4-Hour Chart – Short-Term Bearish Pressure Builds
On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has broken below an ascending channel that had been guiding price since early April. This breakdown is a notable shift in momentum and suggests short-term bearish control.
Following the drop, price was rejected again near $108,000—a level that previously served as support but now appears to be acting as resistance. This role reversal is a classic sign of weakening buyer conviction.
The 4-hour RSI is currently below 50, reinforcing bearish momentum. Additionally, a clear trading range is forming between $102,000 and $108,000. Price has been oscillating within this band after the initial sell-off, indicating indecision among market participants.
Traders should monitor two key zones:
- **$102,000**: A break below this level could accelerate selling pressure and open the door to retest $100,000.
- $108,000: A reclaim of this level would invalidate the near-term bearish setup and could spark renewed buying interest.
Until a decisive breakout occurs, range-bound strategies may offer the best edge. However, given current momentum, a deeper correction over the coming days appears increasingly likely.
On-Chain Insights: Profit-Taking Signals Mount
Adjusted SOPR (30-day EMA) – Market in a Sensitive Phase
One of the most telling on-chain metrics is the 30-day Exponential Moving Average of Bitcoin’s Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR). This metric filters out noise from lost coins and exchange movements to focus on actual profit-taking behavior.
Currently, the 30-day aSOPR is well above 1.0—a strong indication that coins moving on-chain are being sold at a profit. This reflects growing confidence among holders and suggests that many investors are capitalizing on recent gains.
Historically, sustained aSOPR readings above 1.0 during uptrends support continued bullish momentum—especially when corrections are shallow and quickly absorbed. However, when this metric rises too rapidly, it can foreshadow local tops. Aggressive profit-taking by short-term holders often precedes temporary pullbacks as supply temporarily outweighs demand.
A healthy market typically sees a slight aSOPR reset—where profit margins normalize just above breakeven—coinciding with a dip into key support zones like the current FVG or the $91K demand area. This allows new buyers to enter before the next upward leg begins.
👉 Track real-time on-chain data and identify market turning points before they happen.
Key Levels to Watch
To navigate the current market phase effectively, traders should focus on these pivotal levels:
Support Zones:
- $102,000: Immediate floor; break could lead to $100K test
- $98K–$101K: Fair value gap zone; potential magnet for price
- $91K: Critical demand area; structural bullish invalidation below here
Resistance Levels:
- $108K: Former support turned resistance
- $111K: Recent high and liquidity zone
- $114K: Next psychological and technical barrier
Market Sentiment and Forward Outlook
Despite the recent correction, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong. The network continues to see steady adoption, with increasing institutional interest and growing use in decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems.
However, technical caution is warranted. The combination of overextended momentum, rising profit-taking signals, and a broken short-term trend channel suggests that a cooling-off period is not only possible but probable.
For bulls to regain control, BTC must either hold above $102K with strong volume or successfully retest and reclaim $108K. Any failure to do so increases the likelihood of a deeper correction into the fair value gap or even toward long-term moving averages.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is Bitcoin entering a bear market?
A: Not necessarily. While short-term indicators show bearish pressure, the broader trend remains bullish as long as price holds above $91K. Corrections are normal in strong uptrends and often create healthier foundations for future rallies.
Q: What does the fair value gap (FVG) mean for Bitcoin’s price?
A: An FVG represents an imbalance between buy and sell orders. In this case, the $98K–$101K zone is likely to attract price action. If filled with strong buying pressure, it can become a launchpad for new highs.
Q: How reliable is the Adjusted SOPR indicator?
A: The 30-day aSOPR is highly regarded for identifying profit-taking behavior. Readings above 1.0 confirm net profitability across recent transactions—a sign of strength—but rapid spikes can warn of overheated conditions.
Q: Could Bitcoin retest $111K soon?
A: Yes—but only if it first stabilizes above $102K and regains momentum past $108K. Until then, sideways or downward movement is more likely.
Q: What should traders do in this environment?
A: Monitor key support/resistance zones closely. Consider range-bound strategies until a breakout occurs. Use stop-losses near $91K for long positions and watch volume on any attempted recovery.
Q: Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
A: For long-term investors, dips into support zones like $98K–$101K may present strategic entry opportunities—especially if accompanied by declining volatility and stabilizing on-chain metrics.
👉 Start building your crypto portfolio today with advanced trading tools and deep market insights.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s journey toward new all-time highs is rarely linear. The recent rejection from $111K, combined with cooling momentum and rising on-chain profit-taking, points to a period of consolidation or correction.
Yet, the underlying structure remains intact. With key moving averages far below price and strong demand zones still holding, the path of least resistance may still favor higher prices over time—provided BTC doesn’t break below $91K.
Traders should remain agile, using defined levels to manage risk while watching for signs of renewed accumulation. For those with a longer horizon, temporary pullbacks offer strategic opportunities to position ahead of the next potential surge.
Core Keywords: Bitcoin price analysis, BTC technical analysis, Bitcoin correction, fair value gap, Adjusted SOPR, Bitcoin support levels, crypto on-chain data, Bitcoin resistance levels