Solana’s native token, SOL, is facing renewed downward pressure after a 6.5% drop in value over the past 24 hours. Trading below $160, the price marks its weakest level since November 2024, reigniting concerns among investors about further declines. With over $2 billion worth of SOL tokens expected to enter circulation from the upcoming FTX bankruptcy auction, market sentiment has turned increasingly bearish. Analysts are now questioning whether Solana could fall to $100—or even lower. Amid this turbulence, new developments on the ecosystem front, such as PumpFun’s experimental Automated Market Maker (AMM), offer a glimmer of hope for recovery.
This article explores the key factors driving Solana’s price decline, evaluates emerging initiatives that could stabilize or reverse the trend, and assesses what lies ahead for SOL in the near term.
What’s Causing the Solana (SOL) Price Drop?
The current downturn in Solana's price stems from a confluence of macro and project-specific pressures. After losing critical support between $167 and $169, SOL entered a steep correction phase, dropping to $159 and dragging monthly performance down by 35%. Technical analysis reveals weakening buying momentum and persistent selling activity.
A major catalyst for the bearish outlook is the impending unlock of 11.2 million SOL tokens—valued at approximately $2 billion—slated for release next week as part of the FTX bankruptcy proceedings. Such a large supply influx raises fears of massive sell-offs, especially if recipients choose to offload rather than hold.
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Additionally, negative sentiment has been amplified by reports linking the Bybit hack to money laundering via Solana-based meme coins. This association, though indirect, has tarnished the network’s reputation temporarily and contributed to investor caution.
Can PumpFun’s New AMM Revive Solana’s Momentum?
In a bid to strengthen its ecosystem during turbulent times, PumpFun, a leading platform for launching meme coins on Solana, is testing an in-house Automated Market Maker (AMM) liquidity pool. According to community sources, a beta version of the AMM is already live, featuring a swap interface that allows direct trading between SOL and various meme tokens.
Unlike traditional setups where users rely on external decentralized exchanges like Raydium, PumpFun’s AMM enables on-platform liquidity, streamlining the trading experience and potentially increasing transaction speed and efficiency.
Benefits of PumpFun’s AMM Integration
- Faster trades: Reduced dependency on third-party DEXs improves execution speed.
- Enhanced user retention: Traders can launch, list, and trade meme coins within a single interface.
- Revenue growth: Transaction fees generated from swaps could boost PumpFun’s profitability.
- Increased SOL demand: More on-chain activity may drive higher usage of SOL for gas fees and swaps.
PumpFun has historically played a pivotal role in driving engagement on the Solana blockchain. If this new AMM gains traction, it could stimulate broader network utilization—potentially reigniting demand for SOL and providing a counterbalance to current sell pressure.
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Is a Drop to $100 Imminent?
Market analysts are divided, but many agree that without strong buying intervention, Solana could test lower support levels. Crypto_McKenna, a respected on-chain analyst, notes that SOL’s structural breakdown below $167 has opened the door for a decline toward **$112–$126**. Should selling pressure persist, a retest of the **$100 psychological level** becomes increasingly plausible.
Further downside risks include:
- Weak long-side support: Buyers have failed to defend key technical zones.
- **Liquidity voids below $155**: The next strong support isn’t until $120, leaving room for rapid drops.
- Bearish RSI signals: The Relative Strength Index has dipped to 30, indicating oversold conditions—but not yet a confirmed reversal signal.
An oversold RSI often precedes short-term bounces, but sustained recovery requires genuine buying conviction, which remains absent amid ongoing macro uncertainty.
How Are Traders Reacting? Liquidation Data Insights
Derivatives data paints a grim picture for leveraged long positions. According to Coinglass, over **$21 million in long liquidations** were triggered when SOL briefly dipped below $160 on February 24, 2025. These forced sell-offs add fuel to the downward spiral, creating a feedback loop that accelerates price declines.
The liquidation heatmap shows high concentrations of long positions between $120 and $160, meaning further drops could trigger additional cascading liquidations—especially if confidence continues to erode.
Technical Outlook: What’s Next for SOL?
From a charting perspective, Solana is currently trading within a descending parallel channel, a pattern typically associated with prolonged bearish trends. A breakout above this channel would be needed to confirm any meaningful reversal.
Key levels to watch:
- Immediate resistance: $167–$169 (previous support zone)
- Next support: $155 (minor), then $120 (major)
- Critical psychological level: $100
Until SOL regains momentum above $170, the bias remains bearish. However, any sign of accumulation—such as sustained trading volume at lower levels or positive on-chain metrics—could lay the groundwork for a rebound.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Could Solana’s price really drop to $100?
Yes, it's possible. With weak buying support, an oversupply from the FTX token unlock, and negative sentiment linked to illicit fund flows, SOL may test the $100 level if downward momentum continues unchecked.
Is PumpFun’s AMM launch bullish for Solana?
Potentially. By improving meme coin trading efficiency and boosting on-chain activity, PumpFun’s AMM could increase demand for SOL through greater network usage—though its impact depends on adoption speed.
What is the significance of the FTX SOL token unlock?
The release of 11.2 million SOL tokens introduces substantial sell-side pressure. If early recipients choose to dump rather than hold, it could suppress prices for weeks. However, strategic holding by institutional buyers might mitigate this effect.
How do liquidations affect SOL’s price?
When leveraged long positions are liquidated, automatic selling occurs, exacerbating downward moves. With over $20 million already wiped out recently, continued price drops could trigger more forced exits.
What technical indicators suggest about SOL’s future?
The RSI is near oversold territory (30), hinting at potential exhaustion. However, until there's a confirmed break above resistance or rising volume on up days, the trend remains bearish.
Can meme coin activity save Solana’s price?
While meme coins drive short-term engagement and transaction volume, they aren’t a sustainable foundation for price recovery. Long-term value depends on broader adoption, developer activity, and real-world use cases.
Final Thoughts: Navigating Volatility in the Solana Ecosystem
Solana stands at a crossroads. While macro headwinds and supply shocks weigh heavily on sentiment, grassroots innovation—like PumpFun’s AMM experiment—demonstrates resilience within the ecosystem. Whether these efforts can counteract broader market forces remains to be seen.
Investors should monitor key technical levels, on-chain activity, and post-unlock holder behavior closely. In highly volatile markets, timing and risk management are crucial.
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