Bitcoin has reached a pivotal moment in its history—90% of its total supply has now been mined. This marks a significant milestone in the evolution of the world’s first decentralized cryptocurrency, underscoring its scarcity-driven economic model and long-term value proposition.
As of December 13, approximately 18.9 million bitcoins are in circulation, leaving only about 2.1 million yet to be mined. Given that the maximum supply is hardcoded at 21 million, this achievement highlights both the progress made since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009 and the increasingly slow pace at which new coins will enter circulation.
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The Road to 21 Million: A Slow and Predictable Journey
Bitcoin was designed with a built-in mechanism to control inflation: halving events. Roughly every four years, the block reward given to miners is cut in half. This process ensures that the release of new bitcoins gradually slows down over time.
When Bitcoin launched in 2009, miners received 50 BTC per block. Today, after three halvings—in 2012, 2016, and 2020—the reward stands at 6.25 BTC per block. The next halving, expected between March and June 2024, will reduce it further to 3.125 BTC.
This diminishing reward means that while the first 90% of bitcoins were mined in just over 12 years, the remaining 10% could take nearly 120 more years, with the final coin estimated to be mined around February 2140.
The halving mechanism not only enforces scarcity but also historically correlates with significant price increases. Each previous halving has been followed by a bull run, as reduced supply issuance meets growing demand.
Scarcity, Value, and Market Psychology
Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million is embedded in its source code and enforced by network consensus. This immutability is central to its appeal as “digital gold”—a store of value protected from devaluation through unlimited printing.
At the time only 10% of bitcoins had been mined (around 2010), the price was just $0.10. By the time 50% were mined in late 2012, the price had risen to $7.50. Now, with 90% already in circulation, Bitcoin trades around $47,000—a testament to how scarcity influences market valuation.
However, not all mined bitcoins are actively available for trading. A substantial portion is effectively lost forever due to forgotten private keys or inaccessible wallets.
Millions of Bitcoins Are Already Lost Forever
According to blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, an estimated 3.7 million bitcoins are permanently lost. At current prices, that represents over $173 billion in unrealized value.
One of the most famous cases involves James Howells, a Welsh IT worker who accidentally threw away a hard drive containing the private keys to 7,500 bitcoins in 2013. Those coins remain buried in a landfill—and are worth nearly $352 million today.
Similarly, stories like that of a former Peking University student—who co-held a wallet with a friend using split passwords—illustrate the risks of self-custody. When one partner died during a trip abroad, half the password was lost forever, locking away 20,000 bitcoins.
Even Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, is believed to hold around 1 million BTC, none of which has ever been moved since mining ceased in the early days of the network.
These examples highlight a critical paradox: while Bitcoin offers unparalleled financial sovereignty, it also places full responsibility on users for securing their assets—with no recovery options if access is lost.
Price Volatility and Market Corrections
Despite reaching this symbolic milestone, Bitcoin’s price has not been immune to volatility. On the day news broke about the 90% mining threshold, prices dipped over 8%, falling to $45,773—a drop of about 30% from its all-time high of nearly $69,000 set on November 10.
Such corrections are common in crypto markets. Just days earlier, on December 6, a sharp sell-off triggered over $1 billion in liquidations**, affecting more than 417,000 traders globally. The broader digital asset market saw total contract liquidations exceed **$2.5 billion, reflecting heightened leverage and sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts.
Other major cryptocurrencies followed suit: Ethereum dropped 7.3%, Binance Coin fell 6.1%, Solana declined 8.48%, Dogecoin lost nearly 5%, and Shiba Inu slid 5.25%.
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Institutional Skepticism Amid Retail Frenzy
Not all investors view Bitcoin favorably. A recent survey by Natixis Investment Managers found that nearly three-quarters of institutional investors expect digital assets to face a major correction in the coming year. The survey included input from central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate pension funds across multiple countries.
Many institutions see crypto as too risky for retail investors due to extreme volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and operational complexities like key management and custody solutions.
Still, Bitcoin continues attracting mainstream attention—not just as a speculative asset but as part of broader portfolio diversification strategies among hedge funds, family offices, and even some public companies.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: How many bitcoins are left to mine?
A: Approximately 2.1 million bitcoins remain unmined out of a total capped supply of 21 million.
Q: When will the last bitcoin be mined?
A: The final bitcoin is projected to be mined around February 2140 due to the slowing rate of issuance from halving events.
Q: Why does Bitcoin halve every four years?
A: Halving reduces miner rewards by half roughly every four years to control inflation and maintain scarcity, reinforcing Bitcoin’s deflationary nature.
Q: Can more than 21 million bitcoins ever exist?
A: No—Bitcoin’s protocol strictly limits supply to 21 million. Any change would require near-unanimous network consensus, making increases virtually impossible.
Q: What causes Bitcoin price surges after halvings?
A: Reduced supply inflation combined with steady or rising demand often drives price appreciation post-halving, though other macro factors also play roles.
Q: Are lost bitcoins gone forever?
A: Yes—if private keys are lost or inaccessible, those bitcoins cannot be spent and are effectively removed from circulation forever.
The Future of Bitcoin: Scarcity Meets Adoption
While debates continue over whether Bitcoin’s value stems from genuine utility or speculation, one fact remains clear: its scarcity is mathematically guaranteed.
Unlike fiat currencies subject to central bank policies, Bitcoin operates under transparent, predictable rules enforced by decentralized consensus. Its fixed supply and programmed scarcity make it uniquely resistant to inflation—a feature increasingly relevant amid global monetary instability.
As mining slows and ownership becomes more concentrated, the focus shifts from creation to preservation and adoption. Whether used as a hedge against inflation, a cross-border payment tool, or a long-term investment, Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system continues to evolve.
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