Bitcoin has surged past $97,000, with its realized market capitalization reaching a record $882 billion. This milestone reflects growing institutional confidence and widespread investor optimism in the long-term value of BTC. Driven by aggressive accumulation from major firms and sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, the digital asset is showing strong signs of entering a new phase of its bull cycle. Analysts like Peter Brandt suggest that if Bitcoin regains its parabolic trendline near $97,000, a surge toward $150,000 by September 2025 could follow—though a sharp correction afterward remains a possibility.
With Bitcoin trading around $96,600—slightly off its 24-hour high—the market is experiencing a minor pullback after a rapid ascent. Yet, the broader trend remains bullish. The surge in realized cap indicates real economic activity and long-term holding behavior, not just speculative trading. This distinction is crucial for understanding the depth and sustainability of the current rally.
👉 Discover how on-chain metrics can predict the next major Bitcoin breakout.
Understanding Realized Capitalization: A Deeper Look at Market Health
Realized capitalization is a powerful on-chain metric that values each Bitcoin based on its last movement price, rather than the current market rate. Unlike traditional market cap—which multiplies circulating supply by the latest price—realized cap filters out lost or dormant coins, offering a more accurate picture of active investor exposure.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán, Bitcoin’s realized cap hit an all-time high of $882.22 billion on April 29. This figure represents the total value of all Bitcoins at the price they were last transacted, meaning it captures actual cost basis across the network.
This record high suggests that investors are not only buying but holding, signaling strong conviction. It also implies that much of the circulating supply is now owned at higher price levels, which can act as a structural floor during downturns—since holders are less likely to sell at a loss.
Historically, spikes in realized cap have preceded major price rallies. For instance, similar surges were observed in late 2016 and mid-2020, both leading into explosive bull runs. The current uptick since April 9 aligns with this pattern, reinforcing expectations of further upside.
Moreover, Bitcoin has recorded its second consecutive monthly inflow in 2025, indicating sustained demand. Institutional players in the U.S. and Japan are actively increasing their BTC exposure, treating it as strategic reserve assets amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Institutional Demand Fuels Bitcoin Accumulation
Institutional adoption continues to accelerate, with firms like Strategy and Metaplanet leading the charge in Bitcoin acquisition.
Strategy, a U.S.-based investment entity known for its aggressive BTC purchases, recently disclosed its Q1 2025 results. As of April 28, its Strategic Treasury Reserve holds 553,555 BTC—the largest institutional stash reported to date. The average acquisition cost stands at $68,459 per BTC, with a total investment of $37.9 billion. At current prices, the portfolio is valued at approximately $52 billion.
Despite reporting a $4.2 billion unrealized loss due to accounting rules, Strategy remains undeterred. The firm has raised its 2025 yield target from 10% to 25%, increasing its dollar gain objective from $10 billion to $15 billion. To fund further purchases, Strategy launched a $21 billion at-the-market equity offering and issued corporate bonds specifically to acquire more Bitcoin.
Similarly, Japan’s Metaplanet (formerly Metplanet) has intensified its BTC strategy. On April 23, the company announced the issuance of JPY 3.6 billion ($23 million) in zero-percent ordinary bonds to finance Bitcoin purchases. Its holdings now total 5,000 BTC, valued at over $483 million.
These moves reflect a growing trend: corporations are no longer viewing Bitcoin as speculative assets but as long-term treasury reserves—a digital alternative to gold or cash.
👉 See how global institutions are reshaping their balance sheets with Bitcoin.
Can Bitcoin Reach $150,000 by September 2025?
Veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin could reach between $125,000 and $150,000 by September 2025—but only if key technical conditions are met.
The most critical factor? Reclaiming the broken parabolic trendline near $97,000. This level has acted as both support and resistance during previous cycles. If Bitcoin stabilizes above this zone and resumes upward momentum, historical patterns suggest another parabolic leg could unfold.
Brandt’s analysis draws from decades of market cycle observations. He emphasizes that while bullish momentum is building, investors must prepare for volatility. Following any peak near $150,000, a potential 50% correction could occur—a typical feature of post-hype market phases.
Such corrections are not necessarily negative; they help purge weak hands and reset the cycle for future growth. However, they require disciplined risk management and a long-term perspective.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is realized capitalization in Bitcoin?
A: Realized cap assigns value to each BTC based on when it was last moved on-chain. It excludes lost or dormant coins and provides a clearer view of actual investor cost basis compared to traditional market cap.
Q: Why is institutional accumulation important for Bitcoin’s price?
A: When large organizations buy and hold BTC long-term, it reduces circulating supply, increases scarcity, and boosts market confidence—key drivers of price appreciation.
Q: Is a $150,000 Bitcoin price realistic by 2025?
A: While not guaranteed, multiple analysts see this as achievable if current trends continue. Key technical levels and sustained institutional demand will determine whether this target is met.
Q: What happens after Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high?
A: Historically, major peaks have been followed by significant corrections—sometimes up to 50%. These pullbacks are part of healthy market cycles and often precede consolidation before the next phase.
Q: How do corporate bond offerings impact Bitcoin markets?
A: When companies issue bonds to buy BTC (like Metaplanet), it signals strong commitment to holding Bitcoin long-term. This increases demand and reinforces BTC's role as a strategic asset.
Q: Should retail investors be concerned about volatility?
A: Volatility is inherent in crypto markets. Investors should focus on dollar-cost averaging, secure storage, and monitoring on-chain metrics rather than short-term price swings.
Final Thoughts: A Maturing Market with Strong Momentum
Bitcoin’s rise above $97,000—supported by a record realized cap and aggressive institutional buying—marks a pivotal moment in its evolution. The combination of on-chain strength, corporate adoption, and technical momentum suggests that another leg of the bull run may be underway.
While projections like $150,000 by September 2025 capture headlines, the path forward will depend on key technical levels and macroeconomic factors. Investors should stay informed through reliable data sources and remain cautious of over-leveraging during euphoric phases.
Ultimately, Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset—it's becoming a core component of modern financial strategy.
👉 Stay ahead of the next market move with real-time on-chain analytics and insights.