XRP is navigating a pivotal phase in its price trajectory, with shifting on-chain dynamics and evolving trader sentiment setting the stage for a potential breakout—or breakdown. After a strong rally in May that pushed the asset to $2.65, XRP has since retreated, now trading around $2.14 amid cooling whale activity and rising long positions in the derivatives market. As momentum wavers, key technical levels are coming into sharp focus, offering critical clues about what’s next for Ripple’s native token.
Whale Activity Shows Signs of Decline
Recent on-chain data reveals a notable slowdown in whale-driven selling pressure. According to analytics firm Glassnode, wallets that had gained over 300% in value—likely early holders from before November’s breakout—began offloading substantial holdings at the start of June. Daily realized profits peaked at a 7-day average of $68.8 million, marking one of the most active profit-taking periods in months.
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However, that momentum has since faded. The tapering off of large-scale exits suggests whales may have completed their near-term profit-taking, at least for now. This lull could provide a stabilizing effect, reducing the risk of sudden dumps that typically trigger sharp corrections.
Historically, aggressive whale selling has preceded bearish reversals. With that pressure now easing, the path may be clearer for more organic price discovery driven by broader market participation rather than concentrated sell-offs. That said, the brief volume spike in early June disrupted a relatively dormant trend seen since March, indicating some large holders remain watchful—ready to act if volatility returns.
For investors tracking “smart money” behavior, this pause isn’t a definitive bullish signal, but it does remove one of the main headwinds facing XRP bulls. As whales step back, attention shifts to retail and institutional flows to determine the next directional move.
Long Positions Gain Momentum Among Traders
While large holders pull back, leveraged traders are stepping in with growing confidence. Data from Coinglass shows the XRP long/short ratio has climbed to 1.035—the highest level in nearly a month. This shift indicates more traders are betting on a price increase than a decline, signaling renewed optimism in the derivatives market.
The sentiment shift coincides with a 44% surge in 24-hour trading volume, suggesting fresh capital is entering the market. This sudden spike breaks a prolonged period of range-bound inactivity and could be an early sign of accumulation ahead of a potential rebound.
Key indicators supporting bullish momentum include:
- Long/Short Ratio at 1.035: Reflects a growing majority of long positions.
- Volume Surge: A 44% jump signals renewed interest and possible breakout preparation.
- Positive Funding Rates: On major exchanges, longs are paying to maintain positions—indicating short-term bullish conviction.
Open interest on platforms like Binance Futures and Bybit has also increased, hinting that professional traders may be positioning for upside moves. This isn’t just retail speculation; institutional-grade activity suggests calculated bets on XRP’s recovery potential.
Yet, high leverage brings risk. If XRP fails to break key resistance or loses support, these long positions could liquidate rapidly, amplifying downward pressure. For now, the market is primed for volatility—one decisive move could trigger either a short squeeze or a cascade of stop-losses.
Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
With XRP hovering near critical technical zones, traders are closely monitoring support and resistance levels that could define its next major move.
Support Levels
- $2.09: Immediate support and first line of defense. A daily close below this level could accelerate selling.
- $1.99: Secondary support zone. Losing this would open the door to deeper declines.
- $1.80 – $1.61: These levels served as consolidation points earlier in 2024 and could act as magnets if bearish momentum builds.
Resistance Levels
- $2.37 (200-day SMA): The primary resistance barrier. A sustained breakout above this level would signal a shift in market sentiment and could trigger a short squeeze.
- $2.73 – $2.83: Breakout target zone based on April’s rally highs. Reclaiming this range would confirm strong bullish momentum.
Volume and momentum will be crucial as price approaches these thresholds. A move backed by strong volume carries more conviction; weak-volume breakouts often fail quickly.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near neutral at 50, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions—leaving room for price to swing either way. However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains in decline, reflecting tepid capital inflows—a challenge bulls must overcome for any rally to gain traction.
Market Sentiment and Potential Scenarios
Market sentiment is split: cautious optimism battles lingering skepticism. On one hand, reduced whale selling and rising long positions suggest potential upside. On the other, weak CMF readings and declining overall trading volume point to fragile foundations.
Social volume metrics from Santiment show a slight uptick in XRP-related chatter—a possible precursor to volatility—but without corresponding on-chain activity, it may amount to noise rather than momentum.
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Macro trends also play a role. Bitcoin dominance is rising, pulling liquidity away from altcoins like XRP. Without a strong narrative catalyst—such as regulatory clarity or ecosystem growth—XRP may struggle to sustain a rally.
Two primary scenarios are emerging:
Bullish Reversal: If XRP holds above $2.09 and volume increases, a retest of $2.37 becomes likely. A breakout could spark a short squeeze, pushing price toward $2.73–$2.83.
Bearish Breakdown: A decisive drop below $1.99 could lead to a correction toward $1.80 or $1.61, resetting the market for future accumulation.
Regulatory developments involving Ripple and the SEC remain wildcard factors that could override technical signals at any moment.
FAQ
What does a rising long/short ratio mean for XRP?
A rising long/short ratio indicates more traders are betting on price increases. At 1.035, it suggests growing bullish sentiment in the derivatives market, which can fuel momentum if matched by actual buying.
Why is whale activity important for XRP’s price?
Whales hold large amounts of XRP and can influence price significantly through bulk transactions. Their reduced selling suggests less immediate downward pressure, potentially stabilizing the market.
What happens if XRP breaks below $2.09?
A breakdown below $2.09 could trigger further selling, with potential targets at $1.99, $1.80, and even $1.61—levels that previously acted as support during earlier rallies.
How reliable is the 200-day SMA at $2.37?
The 200-day simple moving average is a widely watched indicator of long-term trend direction. Breaking above it would signal renewed bullish control and could attract more buyers.
Can XRP recover without major news from Ripple?
Yes, technical factors and market sentiment can drive short-term moves independently. However, sustained rallies often require fundamental catalysts like regulatory progress or adoption news.
What role does volume play in confirming a breakout?
High volume during a breakout confirms strong participation and increases the likelihood of follow-through. Low-volume breakouts are often false signals that reverse quickly.
With whale exits slowing and speculative longs increasing, XRP stands at a crossroads. The coming sessions will be decisive—will bulls defend support and push toward $2.37, or will bears take control and drive prices lower? Traders should watch volume, CMF trends, and key price levels closely as the narrative unfolds.
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