XRP, the digital asset closely associated with Ripple Labs, has recently experienced a notable price decline. As of March 29, data from CoinMarketCap shows a one-day drop of 4.88%, bringing its current value to $2.14. With a market capitalization of $124.98 billion and a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $4.15 billion, XRP remains a major player in the cryptocurrency space. However, despite Ripple’s partial legal victory over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the token has continued to face downward pressure—falling 10.62% over the past week and down 3.52% month-to-date.
This raises an important question: Why is XRP falling even after a favorable court ruling? Let’s explore the key factors influencing its current performance and assess whether recovery is on the horizon.
Legal Uncertainty: SEC Silence Fuels Market Anxiety
While Ripple secured a partial win in its long-running legal battle with the SEC—specifically regarding the classification of programmatic sales of XRP—the absence of official follow-up action has created lingering uncertainty. The court ruled that such sales did not constitute unregistered securities offerings, a significant milestone for the company. However, the SEC has not formally withdrawn its appeal, leaving investors in limbo.
Market participants had hoped for clarity following a closed-door SEC meeting on Thursday, but no public statement was issued. This silence contrasts sharply with the regulator’s swift dismissal of its case against Coinbase just one week after the exchange’s CEO announced its conclusion.
Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, has publicly stated that the case is “effectively over.” Yet, without formal legal closure, skepticism persists. As Eleanor Terrett, a journalist at CryptoAmerica, noted: “The SEC still needs to go to the judge and ask to lift the standard injunction. Only after that can they vote on the appeal withdrawal.”
Until this process is complete, regulatory ambiguity will continue to weigh on investor confidence—and by extension, on XRP’s price.
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Macroeconomic Pressures: Inflation Data Shakes Investor Confidence
Beyond legal concerns, broader economic indicators are also contributing to XRP’s downturn. On March 28, the entire cryptocurrency market reacted negatively to new U.S. inflation data, which signaled potential challenges ahead for monetary policy.
Two key metrics stood out:
- The Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.8% year-over-year in February—up from 2.7% in January.
- The Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectations Index surged to 5% in March, a sharp increase from 4.3% the previous month.
These figures suggest that inflationary pressures may be reaccelerating, raising fears that the Fed could delay rate cuts—or even consider hiking rates again if conditions worsen. Higher interest rates typically reduce liquidity in risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies, making them less attractive to investors.
Adding fuel to the fire, former President Donald Trump proposed a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, a move that could further strain supply chains and drive prices higher. Such protectionist policies often amplify inflationary trends, increasing market volatility.
As a result, traders are adopting a more cautious stance, leading to profit-taking and reduced exposure across digital assets—including XRP.
Technical Analysis: Is a Deeper Correction Imminent?
From a technical perspective, recent chart patterns suggest bearish momentum may persist unless key levels hold.
Ali Martinez, a well-known crypto analyst, has identified a developing "Head and Shoulders" pattern on XRP’s price chart—a classic reversal signal often preceding significant downside moves. If XRP breaks below the critical support level of $2.05, it could potentially fall to $1.20 or lower.
Peter Brandt, another respected trader, echoed this caution, warning that failure to break above $3.00 might lead to a drop as low as $1.07. Currently, XRP is trading within a range bounded by:
- Support at $1.90
- Resistance at $2.90
A decisive break below $1.90 could trigger further selling pressure, while a sustained move above $2.90 would likely reignite bullish sentiment and open the door for new highs.
Traders are closely watching volume and momentum indicators to gauge whether this consolidation phase will resolve into an uptrend or mark the beginning of a deeper correction.
Future Outlook: Can an XRP ETF Spark a Recovery?
Despite current headwinds, there remains significant optimism around XRP’s long-term potential—especially regarding the possibility of an XRP-based Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).
An ETF would allow traditional investors to gain exposure to XRP through regulated financial products without directly holding the cryptocurrency. This could dramatically increase institutional adoption and bring substantial new capital into the ecosystem.
According to prediction market PolyMarket, there’s currently an 85% probability that an XRP ETF will be approved by 2025. While not guaranteed, such odds reflect growing confidence in regulatory progress and Ripple’s positioning within the evolving digital asset landscape.
If approved, an ETF could serve as a powerful catalyst, potentially pushing XRP toward $3.00 or higher in the months that follow. It would also signal broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies by mainstream finance—a milestone with far-reaching implications.
👉 Explore how ETF developments are reshaping the future of crypto investing.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Will XRP go up in 2025?
While no prediction is certain, many analysts believe XRP has strong upside potential in 2025—especially if regulatory clarity improves and an ETF is approved. Current market sentiment is mixed due to short-term pressures, but long-term fundamentals remain positive.
Why did XRP drop after Ripple won the SEC case?
Although Ripple won a partial legal victory, the SEC has not officially dropped its appeal. This ongoing uncertainty prevents full market confidence from returning, leading to profit-taking and cautious trading behavior.
What is the lowest XRP can fall to?
Technical analysis suggests that if support at $1.90 fails, XRP could decline toward $1.20 or even $1.07 in a worst-case scenario. However, strong buying interest typically emerges near these levels during major corrections.
Is XRP still a good investment?
XRP remains one of the top cryptocurrencies by market cap and real-world use case—particularly in cross-border payments. Investors should weigh regulatory risks against long-term adoption potential before making decisions.
How does inflation affect XRP price?
Rising inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, reducing liquidity in risk assets like crypto. Higher interest rates make yield-bearing traditional assets more attractive, which can lead to outflows from digital currencies.
Final Thoughts: Navigating Volatility with Informed Strategy
The recent decline in XRP’s price stems from a confluence of factors: unresolved regulatory issues with the SEC, adverse macroeconomic data pointing to persistent inflation, and bearish technical patterns suggesting further downside risk.
Yet, amid these challenges lies opportunity. The potential approval of an XRP ETF in 2025 could be a game-changer, unlocking institutional demand and driving renewed price momentum.
As always in crypto markets, timing and risk management are crucial. Staying informed about legal developments, economic trends, and technical signals can help investors make smarter decisions—whether positioning for a rebound or preparing for further volatility.
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