Bitcoin has officially entered the Banana Zone—a term coined by macroeconomic analyst Raoul Pal to describe the explosive, parabolic phase of a bull market. After surging 100% from late 2024 into early 2025 and reaching new all-time highs, BTC underwent a healthy correction. Now, market indicators suggest Phase Two of the rally is underway, with momentum building for what many experts believe could be one of the most powerful bull runs in Bitcoin’s history.
“The Banana Zone is paying out perfectly. We had the first move, the correction, and now we’re entering the next leg—where gains go vertical.” – Raoul Pal
This phase isn't just speculative noise. On-chain data, institutional activity, and long-term valuation models all point to a maturing market cycle with strong fundamentals behind the price action.
Institutional Accumulation Hits Record Levels
According to analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score has reached 1.0, the highest possible reading. This signals aggressive accumulation across all investor classes—from retail buyers to massive institutional whales.
Key developments include:
- Whales (holders with 10,000+ BTC) initiated heavy buying in early May, signaling confidence in long-term upside.
- Mid-tier investors and retail participants followed suit as Bitcoin surpassed $110,000, reinforcing demand at higher price levels.
- Options markets are showing record bullish positioning, particularly on Deribit, where large call options suggest institutional players are hedging or betting on further upside.
Unlike traditional assets like gold or the S&P 500—where rallies often stabilize after record highs—Bitcoin historically experiences profit-taking post-ATH, followed by renewed momentum. However, this cycle may be different. With increasing adoption and structural demand drivers, Bitcoin could transition toward more sustained growth patterns seen in mature asset classes.
👉 Discover how market leaders are positioning for the next major breakout.
PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow Model: Why Bitcoin Is Still Undervalued
Pseudonymous analyst PlanB, renowned for developing the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, continues to assert that Bitcoin remains significantly undervalued despite its recent rally. His latest analysis highlights several key signals aligning with past bull markets:
✅ 200-Week Moving Average Divergence
A classic hallmark of major bull cycles—last observed in 2013 and 2017—is now active again in 2025. When price pulls away strongly from the 200-week MA, it often precedes exponential growth.
✅ Rising Realized Prices
Short-term holders (those who bought within the last 5 months) are now in profit at $92,000**, while long-term holders (2-year+) remain profitable even at **$77,000. This creates a strong support floor and reduces selling pressure.
✅ FOMO Phase Approaching
The widening gap between moving averages indicates that late-stage investors are beginning to enter. Historically, this marks the onset of the fear of missing out (FOMO) phase—typically associated with rapid price acceleration.
“Bitcoin is extremely undervalued. Stock-to-Flow suggests a $500K fair value—price is just catching up.” – PlanB
While critics argue that S2F oversimplifies complex market dynamics, its track record during previous cycles gives it considerable credibility among long-term investors.
Could Bitcoin Hit $300K—or Even $1M—by 2025?
Bullish sentiment is spreading across financial circles, with high-profile predictions pointing to unprecedented price targets:
🔥 A massive Deribit options bet is wagering on Bitcoin reaching $300,000 by June 2025, reflecting growing confidence in near-term parabolic movement.
🔥 Standard Chartered Bank forecasts Bitcoin will reach $120,000 in Q2 2025** and climb to **$200,000 by year-end, driven by ETF inflows and macroeconomic tailwinds.
🔥 Changpeng Zhao (CZ), former CEO of Binance, believes Bitcoin could soar to $500,000–$1,000,000 within this cycle, citing increasing global adoption and scarcity dynamics.
These aren't just idle speculations—they're backed by real capital movements.
Whale Activity and ETF Inflows Signal Strong Demand
Market structure is shifting rapidly due to institutional participation and whale positioning:
- Investor James Wynn opened an $830 million long position** at **$153,000 with 40x leverage, indicating extreme conviction in a breakout above current resistance levels.
- U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $7 billion in net inflows since April 2025, showcasing robust demand from traditional finance.
- Billionaire investor Kevin O’Leary recently declared: “Bitcoin is about to explode—trillions are coming.”
Such statements reflect a broader trend: Bitcoin is no longer viewed as a fringe asset but as a strategic store of value akin to gold—only with higher growth potential.
👉 See how top traders are preparing for the next surge in digital assets.
Tom Lee: Bitcoin Leading the S&P 500 Signals Macro Breakout
Fundstrat’s co-founder Tom Lee has identified critical macro-level indicators suggesting a broader market rally may be on the horizon—led by Bitcoin.
📈 Bitcoin Leads S&P 500 by One Month
Historically, when Bitcoin makes a new all-time high before equities, it acts as a leading indicator for a wider bull market across stocks and other risk assets.
📉 Extreme Bearish Positioning in Equities
Hedge funds are currently shorting stocks at near-record levels. Such contrarian positioning often precedes major reversals and rallies.
⚡ VIX Collapse Below 30
The CBOE Volatility Index dropping below 30 has historically marked market bottoms and the start of new uptrends—another green light for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Together, these signals suggest that Bitcoin isn’t just experiencing a standalone rally—it may be spearheading a broader financial shift.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the Banana Zone?
The Banana Zone refers to the steep, parabolic phase of Bitcoin’s bull market when price accelerates rapidly after an initial rally and correction. The term was popularized by macro analyst Raoul Pal due to the chart's banana-like curvature during explosive growth phases.
Is the Stock-to-Flow model still relevant?
Yes. Despite criticism, PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model has accurately predicted major turning points in past cycles. It measures scarcity by comparing existing supply to annual production (similar to gold), making it a compelling framework for long-term valuation.
Are ETF inflows really driving the rally?
Absolutely. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have introduced institutional-grade access to BTC, enabling pension funds, family offices, and retail investors to gain exposure without custody concerns. Over $7 billion in net inflows since April 2025 underscores strong underlying demand.
Could Bitcoin really reach $500K?
Multiple analysts—including PlanB and CZ—believe so. Drivers include halving-induced scarcity, increasing institutional adoption, global macro instability, and growing recognition of Bitcoin as digital gold. While timing varies, the trajectory appears aligned with six-figure valuations.
What happens after Bitcoin hits $200K?
Historical patterns suggest volatility increases as FOMO intensifies. Many investors take profits around psychological milestones, leading to sharp corrections. However, sustained ETF demand and whale accumulation may cushion downside risk and prolong the uptrend.
How can I participate safely in this bull run?
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA), using secure wallets, and avoiding excessive leverage are key strategies. Monitoring on-chain metrics and macro indicators helps avoid emotional decisions during volatile swings.
Final Outlook: A Historic Bull Run Is Underway
With converging evidence from:
✔ Raoul Pal’s Banana Zone thesis
✔ PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow valuation model
✔ Record whale accumulation and ETF inflows
✔ Bullish projections from top financial analysts
The case for a historic 2025 bull run grows stronger by the day. Whether Bitcoin reaches $200K (per Standard Chartered), $300K (Deribit bet), or even $500K–$1M (CZ, PlanB), one thing is clear: we are witnessing a transformational phase in digital asset history.
👉 Join the global movement shaping the future of finance—start your journey today.
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