Bitcoin Dominance Holds Altcoin Season at Bay, Analyst Says No Upside Until This Happens

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The cryptocurrency market continues to navigate a complex and shifting landscape, with one key metric standing out as a decisive factor: Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D). As BTC.D climbs and maintains elevated levels, hopes for an imminent altcoin season are being pushed further into the future. Market analysts are closely watching this trend, warning that without a structural shift in capital flow, alternative cryptocurrencies may remain sidelined.

Why Bitcoin Dominance Matters

Bitcoin Dominance refers to the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that Bitcoin controls. When BTC.D rises, it typically indicates that investors are favoring Bitcoin over altcoins—often seen during times of uncertainty, macroeconomic pressure, or strong institutional inflows into the flagship crypto.

Currently, Bitcoin Dominance sits at 65.72%, a level not seen since late 2023. This surge reflects a growing concentration of capital in Bitcoin, driven by factors such as spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, halving anticipation, and macroeconomic hedging. As a result, many altcoins are experiencing stagnation or decline, despite occasional rallies in select sectors like AI-driven tokens or meme coins.

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Technical Signals: RSI in Overbought Territory

According to crypto analyst Tony Severino, two critical technical indicators are flashing warning signs for altcoin investors: Bitcoin Dominance and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) across weekly and monthly timeframes.

At the time of analysis:

Both values are firmly in overbought territory, traditionally indicating extended bullish momentum. While overbought conditions don’t guarantee a reversal, they do suggest that the current trend has room to persist—especially when supported by strong fundamentals and institutional demand.

Severino highlighted dual charts showing BTC.D’s steady climb since late 2023, with RSI consistently above its moving average baselines (67.31 monthly and 65.42 weekly). This sustained strength implies that Bitcoin’s market leadership isn’t showing early signs of exhaustion.

“As long as BTC.D holds above these RSI thresholds, we should expect continued underperformance from altcoins,” Severino noted. “A meaningful altseason won’t begin until we see a clear pullback in dominance and RSI falling below 70.”

This threshold—RSI dropping below 70—could act as a leading indicator of capital rotation from Bitcoin into alternative ecosystems like DeFi, Layer 1 platforms, and emerging narratives such as decentralized identity or real-world asset tokenization.

The Dragonfly Doji: A Pause or Reversal?

In a recent observation, Severino pointed to a potential Dragonfly Doji forming on the weekly BTC.D chart. With four days remaining in the weekly candle cycle, the pattern shows a long lower wick and price closing near the open—classically interpreted as a bullish reversal signal when appearing after a downtrend.

However, context is crucial. In this case, the Dragonfly Doji is emerging within an ongoing uptrend, which complicates interpretation. Rather than signaling an immediate reversal, it may instead reflect:

If the weekly candle closes above 65.65%, it could confirm continued strength in Bitcoin’s dominance. Conversely, failure to hold this level might open the door for altcoins to regain investor attention.

What It Means for Altcoin Investors

For those anticipating an altcoin season, the current data suggests patience is required. Historical cycles show that altseasons typically follow periods of Bitcoin dominance stabilization or decline—when traders seek higher returns beyond BTC.

Key conditions to watch for:

Until these signals emerge, most altcoins may struggle to break out meaningfully—even high-potential projects with strong fundamentals.

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Core Keywords Driving Market Sentiment

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These terms reflect what active traders and investors are searching for: clarity on market cycles, timing entry points, and understanding macro-level trends shaping portfolio decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What is Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)?
A: BTC.D measures Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization. A rising BTC.D suggests investors are favoring Bitcoin over altcoins, often during uncertain or risk-off market phases.

Q: Can an altcoin season happen while BTC.D is high?
A: Historically, sustained altseasons occur only after BTC.D peaks and begins to decline. While short-term altcoin rallies can happen during high dominance, broad-based growth typically follows a shift in capital flow.

Q: What RSI level indicates a potential shift in dominance?
A: Analysts often watch for BTC.D’s weekly and monthly RSI to fall below 70, signaling overbought conditions have eased and a pullback in dominance may be underway.

Q: How long do altseasons usually last?
A: Past altseasons have ranged from several weeks to over six months, depending on macro conditions, innovation cycles (e.g., DeFi summer), and overall market liquidity.

Q: Does Bitcoin’s price affect BTC.D directly?
A: Not always. BTC.D depends on the relative performance of Bitcoin versus altcoins. Even if BTC price stagnates, BTC.D can rise if altcoins fall faster in value.

Q: What could trigger a drop in Bitcoin Dominance?
A: Key catalysts include: ETF inflows slowing, major upgrades in altcoin networks (e.g., Ethereum’s scalability improvements), increased retail participation in new projects, or macro shifts favoring risk assets.

Final Outlook: Wait for the Rotation

While excitement builds around emerging crypto narratives—from AI-integrated blockchains to tokenized real-world assets—the data shows that now isn’t the time to rush into altcoin positions. The market remains firmly in Bitcoin’s control, with technical indicators reinforcing its dominance.

Traders and investors should monitor BTC.D and its associated RSI readings closely. Only when both begin to trend downward will the landscape likely shift toward favorable conditions for altcoins.

Until then, the message from the charts is clear: altcoin season remains on hold.

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