XRP has long stood at the crossroads of innovation and controversy. While critics question its long-term viability, supporters argue it remains undervalued—especially given its foundational role in cross-border payments. Recently, a new analysis using a fair value calculator has sparked fresh discussions: what could XRP be worth if it matched Tether’s (USDT) record-breaking daily trading volume of $292 billion?
The results are eye-opening.
Rather than relying on hype or speculative sentiment, this valuation model draws from real-world utility metrics pioneered by researchers Robert Michniak and Susan Athey. It evaluates digital assets based on how much economic activity they facilitate—offering a data-driven lens into potential future prices.
Let’s explore what happens when we plug USDT’s peak volume into an XRP valuation framework—and what conditions would need to align for such a scenario to unfold.
Understanding the Benchmark: USDT’s $292 Billion Daily Volume
Tether (USDT) is the backbone of crypto market liquidity. As the largest stablecoin by market cap, it underpins trading pairs across exchanges, facilitates arbitrage, and enables seamless value transfer between volatile assets.
On February 3, USDT hit an unprecedented $292 billion in daily trading volume—a number that dwarfs most individual cryptocurrencies’ annual volumes. For context:
- This volume exceeds the GDP of entire countries over a 24-hour span.
- It reflects massive institutional and retail demand for a stable, fast, and widely accepted digital dollar proxy.
In contrast, XRP’s highest recorded daily trading volume was $51.7 billion in December last year—impressive, but less than 18% of USDT’s peak.
👉 Discover how real-world transaction volume could redefine XRP’s price potential.
Modeling XRP’s Fair Value: Key Assumptions
To estimate XRP’s theoretical price under USDT-like volume conditions, we used the following parameters in the fair value calculator:
1. Target Daily Transaction Volume: $292 Billion
This represents the level of economic throughput XRP would need to process daily—equivalent to USDT’s peak. Achieving this implies widespread adoption by financial institutions for cross-border settlements, remittances, and liquidity management.
2. Average Holding Period: 10 Days per Month
We assume XRP is actively used rather than hoarded. A 10-day average holding period suggests consistent turnover—indicating utility rather than pure speculation.
3. Value Storage Component: $180 Billion
Even with high transaction volume, some portion of XRP must function as a store of value. We allocated $180 billion to reflect long-term holdings by institutions and strategic investors.
4. Adoption Timeline: 3 Years
Realistic growth takes time. We assume a three-year window for:
- Expansion of Ripple’s banking partnerships
- Regulatory clarity in major markets
- Integration into global payment rails like RippleNet and CBDC corridors
5. Circulating Supply: 66.2 Billion XRP
Currently, around 59 billion XRP are in circulation. Ripple releases approximately 2 billion new tokens monthly, with about 7.2 billion expected to enter the market over three years. Factoring in projected unlocks, the total circulating supply reaches 66.2 billion.
6. Discount Rate: 2% Annual Return
To calculate present value, we applied a conservative 2% discount rate—reflecting low expected returns in a mature, stable digital asset environment.
These assumptions are not predictions but plausible scenarios under aggressive institutional adoption.
The Result: XRP Valued at $44.13
When all variables are entered into the model, the calculator returns a striking figure:
$44.13 per XRP.
This represents a 1,870% increase from its current price of approximately $2.24—and aligns with earlier expert forecasts:
- In August last year, analyst Mike McGlone projected XRP could reach $44.
- Crypto influencer EGRAG also forecasted a $44 target by March 2025.
While these numbers aren’t guarantees, they highlight a powerful truth: utility drives value.
If XRP were to process the same volume as USDT—even temporarily—it would no longer be seen merely as a speculative token. Instead, it would function as critical infrastructure in the global financial system.
Could This Scenario Actually Happen?
For XRP to match USDT’s volume, several catalysts must converge:
- Regulatory Resolution: Ongoing legal clarity, particularly in the U.S., is essential for institutional confidence.
- Banking Adoption: More financial institutions must integrate XRP via RippleNet for real-time settlement.
- CBDC Collaboration: Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) may use XRP as a bridge currency in multi-jurisdictional transactions.
- Liquidity Incentives: Exchanges and market makers would need to support deep order books to handle massive volume spikes.
It’s also important to note that USDT’s volume includes speculative trading—not just settlement activity. So for XRP to reach similar levels, it would likely require both real-world usage and heightened investor interest.
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FAQ: Your Questions About XRP’s Valuation Answered
Q: Is $44 a realistic price target for XRP?
A: While aggressive, $44 isn’t unfounded. It assumes XRP becomes integral to global payments at scale. Historical precedents—like Bitcoin’s rise during adoption booms—show that utility-driven narratives can fuel exponential growth.
Q: How does transaction volume affect cryptocurrency prices?
A: High transaction volume signals demand for an asset’s utility. When more people use a token for payments or settlements, its network effect strengthens—driving up scarcity and perceived value.
Q: Can XRP surpass USDT in daily volume?
A: Not in the near term. USDT benefits from being a stablecoin used across DeFi, CeFi, and trading platforms. However, XRP doesn’t need to surpass USDT—it only needs to process similar settlement volumes through banking channels to justify higher valuations.
Q: What risks could prevent XRP from reaching this valuation?
A: Regulatory setbacks, slow adoption by banks, competition from other payment protocols (like Stellar or SWIFT’s digital currency initiatives), and macroeconomic downturns could all delay or limit growth.
Q: Does circulating supply dilute XRP’s value over time?
A: Gradual release of new tokens can create selling pressure. However, if demand from institutions grows faster than supply increases, price appreciation can still occur—even with inflationary issuance.
The Bigger Picture: Utility Over Speculation
The $44.13 valuation isn’t just about numbers—it’s about transformation.
XRP was designed to solve real problems: slow international transfers, high remittance fees, and fragmented liquidity. If financial institutions begin using it at scale—processing hundreds of billions in daily transactions—its market cap would reflect that utility.
Compare this to traditional assets:
- Visa processes around $150 billion in daily payment volume.
- SWIFT handles trillions annually but with delays and intermediaries.
XRP offers near-instant settlement with minimal cost—a compelling alternative in an increasingly digital world.
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Final Thoughts
Reaching USDT’s $292 billion daily trading volume is an ambitious benchmark—but not impossible. With the right regulatory tailwinds, expanding financial partnerships, and growing demand for efficient cross-border tools, XRP could one day process transaction volumes that justify a **$40+ price tag**.
The key takeaway?
Price follows utility.
And if XRP becomes the bridge currency of choice for global finance, its value may be far greater than most currently imagine.
While we can’t predict the future, models like this help us understand the potential—not just of a token, but of an entire financial paradigm shift powered by blockchain technology.