The price of gold remains in a state of measured volatility, balancing between geopolitical developments and shifting monetary policy expectations. Despite a temporary de-escalation between Israel and Iran, market focus has pivoted back to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook—particularly the growing possibility of a July rate cut. This evolving dynamic is shaping gold’s near-term trajectory, with technical indicators suggesting a re-test of key support levels before any sustained upward move.
Market Recap: Monday’s Price Action
On Monday, June 23, gold opened over $20 higher due to weekend geopolitical tensions, briefly touching an intraday high of **$3,395.88 per ounce**. However, the rally quickly stalled as technical resistance and profit-taking pressures emerged. Sentiment shifted when former President Trump announced that Israel and Iran had reached a full ceasefire agreement, dampening safe-haven demand and sending prices lower.
By midday, gold hit its daily low at $3,347.10**, before finding support from renewed dovish commentary by Federal Reserve officials—particularly Mary Daly and Loretta Mester—who suggested that if inflation continues to moderate, a July rate cut remains on the table. This helped fuel a recovery, pushing prices back up to around **$3,393 during the overnight session.
Despite the rebound, selling pressure returned near the close, pulling gold back to settle at $3,368.96**—a slight decline of $0.94 from Friday’s close. The day’s total range spanned nearly $49**, reflecting ongoing market indecision.
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Tuesday Outlook: Ceasefire Confirmed, But Dollar Weakness Supports Gold
Gold opened lower on Tuesday, June 24, extending Monday’s late pullback after Trump reiterated that Israel and Iran had agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire. Prices briefly tested Monday’s low and dipped slightly below it, signaling continued short-term bearish momentum.
However, the decline was contained by a weakening U.S. dollar. The DXY index closed lower on Monday and continued its descent at the start of Tuesday’s session. With the dollar struggling to hold above its 50-day moving average and showing bearish momentum across multiple timeframes—including daily, weekly, and monthly charts—the downward pressure on the greenback is likely to provide structural support for gold.
From a broader perspective, the U.S. dollar remains under sustained bearish pressure across all major cycles. The monthly chart indicates continued downside risks, reinforcing expectations of further depreciation. This macro backdrop increases gold’s appeal as a non-yielding but stable store of value during periods of currency weakness.
Key Economic Data and Central Bank Speeches This Week
Market participants should closely monitor several upcoming U.S. economic releases:
- Q1 Current Account (USD)
- April FHFA House Price Index (MoM)
- April S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index (YoY)
- June Consumer Confidence Index (CB)
These indicators are expected to reflect softening consumer sentiment and cooling housing markets—trends that could bolster arguments for earlier rate cuts. Any data pointing to economic slowdown will likely boost gold, which thrives in low-interest-rate environments.
Additionally, speeches from key central bankers will be critical:
- ECB President Christine Lagarde
- BOE Governor Andrew Bailey
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell and multiple FOMC members
Their comments on inflation, growth outlooks, and monetary policy will directly impact market expectations for rate cuts—and by extension, gold prices.
Fundamental Drivers: Beyond Geopolitics
While recent price swings were triggered by Middle East developments, the lasting direction of gold will be determined by deeper macroeconomic forces.
1. Monetary Policy Shifts
Despite the Fed holding rates steady so far in 2025, the latest dot plot and commentary from officials suggest two rate cuts are still likely this year—with July emerging as a strong candidate if inflation data remains favorable. A shift toward easier monetary policy reduces bond yields and weakens the dollar, both of which are historically bullish for gold.
2. Central Bank Demand
Global central banks continue to accumulate gold at record pace. This structural buying provides a strong floor for prices, especially during times of market stress or currency devaluation.
3. Geopolitical Fatigue
Markets are becoming increasingly desensitized to short-term geopolitical flare-ups. While events like the Israel-Iran tensions can spark temporary rallies, their impact is fading faster than in previous cycles. Investors are now prioritizing economic fundamentals over headlines.
4. Trade Tensions and Fiscal Risks
Ongoing trade disputes and America’s growing fiscal deficit remain long-term concerns. Even temporary tariff reductions do little to eliminate underlying structural risks that favor gold as a hedge.
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Technical Analysis: Bullish Trend Intact Despite Consolidation
Monthly Chart: Long-Term Bull Market in Place
Since reigniting its bull run last year, gold has consistently found support at the 5-month moving average. Although recent price action shows consolidation without new highs, the overall trend remains intact.
A key development occurred in March when gold decisively broke above its long-standing upward trendline—connecting the 2016 peak ($1,375) to the 2020 high ($2,075). This breakout signals potential for a new phase of appreciation.
Even if short-term momentum wanes, any decline is likely to be contained above this trendline (currently near $2,900**). A drop below this level would open the door to a deeper correction toward **$2,500, though such a scenario is considered low probability given current fundamentals.
Daily Chart: Range-Bound But Holding Key Support
On the daily chart, gold has failed to reclaim the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, giving bears a slight edge in the short term. However, the broader uptrend remains undamaged.
Traders should watch:
- Support: 30-day and 60-day moving averages (~$3,330–$3,321)
- Resistance: Bollinger Band middle band and short-term MAs (~$3,370–$3,388)
A bounce from support could trigger a renewed rally toward $3,400 and beyond.
Silver Outlook: Following Gold’s Lead
Silver is mirroring gold’s pattern:
- Support: $35.55 or $35.20
- Resistance: $36.10 or $36.30
As a more volatile precious metal, silver tends to amplify moves in gold—making it attractive for leveraged plays once direction is confirmed.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is gold still in a bull market?
A: Yes. Despite recent consolidation, the long-term trend remains bullish due to central bank buying, fiscal risks, and expected rate cuts.
Q: What could trigger the next leg up in gold?
A: A clear signal of an impending Fed rate cut—especially in July—or a spike in geopolitical risk could catalyze strong upward momentum.
Q: How does the U.S. dollar affect gold prices?
A: Gold is inversely correlated with the dollar. When the dollar weakens (as it is now), gold becomes more attractive to international buyers and investors seeking alternatives.
Q: What happens if gold breaks below $3,300?
A: A sustained break could signal short-term bearishness, but only a drop below $2,900 (the long-term trendline) would threaten the overall bull thesis.
Q: Are central banks still buying gold?
A: Yes—central bank demand hit record levels in recent years and continues to provide strong underlying support for prices.
Q: Could gold reach $4,000?
A: Given current macro trends—including persistent inflation risks, debt levels, and monetary easing—the $4,000 level is within reach over the next 12–18 months.
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Conclusion: Wait for Support Re-Test Before Next Rally
Gold is currently navigating a period of consolidation following geopolitical noise and mixed technical signals. While the Israel-Iran ceasefire has reduced immediate safe-haven demand, structural drivers—especially expectations for Fed rate cuts and dollar weakness—are keeping the bullish case alive.
The path forward likely involves a re-test of the 30-day and 60-day moving average support zone (~$3,320–$3,330), offering a strategic entry point before the next upward phase. With central bank buying intact and macro risks lingering, gold remains well-positioned to resume its climb toward new all-time highs—and potentially break above $4,000 in the coming year.
Keywords: gold price forecast 2025, Fed rate cut 2025, gold technical analysis, U.S. dollar impact on gold, central bank gold buying, Israel-Iran ceasefire effect on markets