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潮玩风云：一半神话，一半泡沫

The world of潮流玩具—commonly known as “chao wan”—is experiencing a seismic shift. What once began as a niche subculture rooted in collectibles and fandom has exploded into a global phenomenon, drawing investors, celebrities, and mass-market retailers into its orbit. Yet beneath the glittering surface of limited editions and viral unboxings lies a volatile reality: a market split between enduring cultural impact and speculative bubbles.

This is not just about toys. It’s about emotion-driven consumption, celebrity influence, and the global race for intellectual property (IP) dominance. From Bangkok to Riyadh, from TikTok livestreams to IPO filings, the潮玩 industry is rewriting the rules of retail—and redefining what it means to own a piece of pop culture.

The IPO Rush: Dreams vs. Reality

China's潮玩 sector is undergoing rapid transformation. By May 2025, over 22,300 companies were registered under潮玩-related categories, with more than 3,400 entering the space in just the first four months of the year. According to the China Toy Association, the broader entertainment toy market reached ¥101.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to hit ¥212.1 billion by 2029.

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Growth at this pace inevitably attracts capital—and hype. Much like the earlier frenzy around new tea饮 brands,潮玩 companies are now racing toward IPOs. In early 2025, Brucko, dubbed “China’s Lego,” successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange just eight months after its initial filing. Shortly after, 52TOYS and Hangzhou Tong Laoshi Cultural Group submitted their prospectuses, signaling a wave of public market ambitions.

Even Miniso is getting in on the action. Its subsidiary Top Toy is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO with an estimated $300 million target, backed by JPMorgan Chase and UBS Group. But behind this gold rush lies a sobering truth: profitability remains elusive.

Despite aggressive expansion, Top Toy’s 2024 revenue still fell short of one-third of Pop Mart’s. Meanwhile, 52TOYS reported cumulative losses nearing ¥200 million over three years. While it achieved impressive sales through licensed IPs like Crayon Shin-chan—generating over ¥380 million in GMV—the high cost of licensing and volume guarantees led to negative operating cash flow.

This contradiction defines the current潮玩 landscape: massive user engagement and revenue growth, but fragile financial health.

IP or Irrelevant? The Core of潮玩 Survival

In the潮玩 world, one rule stands supreme: no IP, no future.

Licensed characters dominate sales. At 52TOYS, Crayon Shin-chan alone accounted for 60% of total revenue in 2024. But reliance on third-party IP comes at a steep price—both financially and strategically. Companies must pay hefty royalties and often face sales targets that pressure margins.

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More critically, they remain replaceable. When Miniso launched its own Shin-chan line—spanning plush toys, stationery, snacks, and accessories—it captured significant shelf space. Pop Mart followed with萌粒 blind boxes, intensifying competition.

To break free, brands are investing heavily in original IP development. Pop Mart established a dedicated film division in June 2025 and released its first Labubu animated short. They’re also hiring scriptwriters—a sign that storytelling is now central to brand longevity.

Yet success isn’t guaranteed. LINE FRIENDS thrived because it emerged alongside mobile messaging apps, embedding itself into daily digital communication. Even then, it had to evolve with celebrity campaigns and content series to sustain relevance.

Can Chinese brands replicate that? Early signs point to WAKUKU, a character developed by Shenzhen-based Letsvan. After debuting via actress Yu Shuxin’s social media post—which garnered over a million likes—the brand leveraged a network of celebrities including Quan Hongchan, Chen Meng, and Wang Yibo. By May 2025, WAKUKU’s “Fox Rabbit” series sold out within hours, with secondary market prices surging over 300%.

Quantum Group acquired a 61% stake in Letsvan for ¥235 million in March—proof that capital sees potential in homegrown IP. But can these characters survive beyond viral moments? That’s the billion-dollar question.

Hidden Frontiers:潮玩’s Global Ascent

While domestic markets face saturation and speculation, overseas expansion has become a lifeline.

Dubai may be synonymous with luxury malls, but Dongguan, China’s manufacturing heartland, has quietly become the export engine for潮玩. From January to July 2024, Dongguan’s toy exports exceeded ¥12 billion, reaching over 100 countries.

Southeast Asia emerged as a prime target due to its young population and strong social media engagement. The 2018 push laid groundwork; the 2024 Labubu craze—fueled by Blackpink’s Lisa—catapulted Pop Mart back into global spotlight. However, oversupply soon followed. By late 2024, many small brands retreated from Thailand.

Survivors adapted. They embraced localization—limited editions, cultural collaborations, in-store experiences—and tapped into platforms like TikTok Shop and SHEIN for direct-to-consumer reach.

Results speak volumes:

Even traditionally skeptical regions like the Middle East are opening up. Once considered too conservative or low-population for潮玩, Saudi Arabia proved otherwise when BTS performed in Riyadh in 2019—selling out nearly 70,000 tickets. Secondary market prices soared from ¥1,161 to nearly ¥6,916.

Blackpink’s 2023 concert turned Riyadh pink—literally—demonstrating deep cultural resonance among Arab youth. K-pop and anime-themed stores now operate in major cities.

Metastatinsight forecasts the global潮玩 market will reach $62.1 billion by 2030. China isn’t just participating—it’s leading.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is the潮玩 market sustainable long-term?
A: Yes—but only for brands that build authentic IP and diversify beyond blind boxes. Emotional connection and storytelling will determine longevity.

Q: Why are so many潮玩 companies going public?
A: To secure capital amid rising competition and high R&D/marketing costs. However, most are still unprofitable, making investor confidence crucial.

Q: Can non-Chinese brands compete globally?
A: Absolutely. While Chinese firms dominate production and innovation, Western and Japanese brands can leverage legacy IPs and mature fandoms.

Q: How important is celebrity endorsement?
A: Extremely. As seen with Labubu and WAKUKU, celebrity “unboxing” content can drive overnight virality and sales spikes.

Q: Is overseas expansion necessary?
A: Increasingly yes. With domestic markets crowded and sentiment-sensitive, international growth offers stability and new audience pools.

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Conclusion: Myth or Momentum?

The潮玩 industry stands at a crossroads. On one side: myth-making, where limited drops create cult followings and secondary markets thrive. On the other: market correction, where overvaluation crashes and unsustainable models collapse.

But within this tension lies opportunity—for original creators, global storytellers, and culturally attuned entrepreneurs. The winners won’t be those who chase trends, but those who build worlds worth collecting.

Core keywords: chao wan, Pop Mart, Labubu, WAKUKU, IPO, celebrity marketing, global expansion, IP development

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