Bitcoin has plunged over 21% from its all-time high of approximately $109,300, entering a pronounced correction phase. As of February 26, 2025, BTC is trading around $87,534, sparking intense debate among market analysts about whether this dip is a temporary pullback or the beginning of a deeper market reversal. While sentiment remains divided, technical models and historical patterns suggest a potential retest of the $100,000 milestone could be on the horizon.
The Wyckoff Reaccumulation Model: A Bullish Signal?
One of the most compelling technical frameworks currently being cited by analysts is the Wyckoff reaccumulation model, a price action pattern used to identify potential accumulation phases after strong uptrends. According to independent market analyst SuperBro, Bitcoin has entered the “Test” phase of this formation.
In this phase, price retests prior support levels to confirm strength before resuming an upward trajectory. For Bitcoin, this means retesting the Spring phase low near $85,950**. If this zone holds as support, the model predicts a move toward a new **Last Point of Support (LPS)** around **$96,780, potentially setting the stage for a renewed push toward $100,000.
Bitcoin daily – potential Wyckoff reaccumulation
— SuperBro, Market Analyst
This pattern isn't just theoretical. A nearly identical setup unfolded in August 2024, when Bitcoin rallied 40% from $53,400 to $74,000 following a similar consolidation and reaccumulation structure. That precedent gives weight to current bullish interpretations.
👉 Discover how market cycles shape Bitcoin’s price trajectory with real-time analytics.
Historical Parallels and Market Sentiment
Analyst Vijay Boyapati has drawn comparisons between today’s market behavior and Bitcoin’s prolonged consolidation between $50,000 and $70,000 throughout 2024—a period that ultimately culminated in a strong breakout after major macroeconomic catalysts, including the U.S. presidential election.
“Although Bitcoin's prior cycles had more of a parabolic shape with a blowoff top, it may be the case that the shape of Bitcoin's cycles are changing. And this should not be surprising given the size and scale of the capital now entering the market.”
— Vijay Boyapati, Market Strategist
This shift suggests that Bitcoin’s price movements are maturing. Instead of sharp, speculative spikes followed by crashes, we may be seeing longer consolidation periods with deeper institutional involvement—leading to more sustainable long-term growth.
Market Pressure: ETF Outflows and Investor Behavior
Despite bullish technical signals, bearish forces are also at play. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced record outflows of nearly $1 billion during the recent sell-off. This massive capital withdrawal reflects growing investor caution and aligns with warnings from Standard Chartered’s crypto research head, Geoff Kendrick, who predicted that “the big capitulation is yet to come.”
Such outflows can amplify downward pressure in the short term, especially when combined with broader market uncertainty.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
Bitcoin’s weekly chart reveals critical support and resistance zones that could determine its next major move:
- Current Support Range: $85,000 – $90,000
A successful defense of this zone could validate the Wyckoff reaccumulation setup. - 50-Week EMA: ~$76,390
Historically, major corrections have found temporary bottoms near this moving average. A drop to this level would represent a roughly 15% decline from current prices. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
- 61.8% retracement: $57,690
- 78.6% retracement: $48,170
A breakdown below $76,390 could trigger a cascade toward these deeper levels.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 52.65, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions—leaving ample room for further downside before momentum potentially reverses.
Macroeconomic Crosswinds
Bitcoin no longer moves in isolation. Its price action is increasingly influenced by global macroeconomic trends:
- U.S. Trade Policy: Proposed tariffs by President Donald Trump have raised concerns about a potential global trade war, which could dampen risk appetite across financial markets.
- Inflation and Consumer Confidence: Rising inflation expectations and weakening consumer sentiment are complicating the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
- Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Fed Chair Jerome Powell paused the rate-cutting cycle after a half-point reduction in September 2024. Markets remain uncertain about future cuts, especially if inflation rebounds.
👉 Stay ahead of macro trends impacting crypto with advanced market insights.
Additionally, Nvidia’s Q4 earnings report is looming—a key event that could sway both tech and cryptocurrency markets. Given Nvidia’s role in AI infrastructure and its correlation with crypto mining demand, any surprise in earnings or guidance could ripple through digital asset valuations.
Is the Top In? Analysts Remain Divided
Bitfinex analysts describe Bitcoin as being at a “critical juncture” after nearly 90 days of consolidation. The outcome of this phase will likely define Bitcoin’s price path for the remainder of 2025.
While some fear further downside due to ETF outflows and macro risks, others believe this correction is healthy—and necessary—before another leg up. The persistence of institutional interest, ongoing adoption, and limited supply suggest that long-term fundamentals remain intact.
Core Keywords:
- Bitcoin price prediction
- BTC analysis
- $100K Bitcoin retest
- Wyckoff reaccumulation model
- Bitcoin ETF outflows
- Crypto market correction
- Bitcoin support levels
- Federal Reserve impact on crypto
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the Wyckoff reaccumulation model?
The Wyckoff reaccumulation model is a technical analysis framework that identifies phases where smart money accumulates assets after a strong price rise. It typically includes stages like accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. In the current context, Bitcoin appears to be testing support after an uptrend—suggesting potential accumulation before another upward move.
Can Bitcoin really retest $100K?
Yes, based on technical patterns like the Wyckoff model and historical precedents (e.g., August 2024), a retest of $100K is plausible—if key support levels hold. However, macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment will also play decisive roles.
Why are Bitcoin ETFs seeing large outflows?
ETF outflows often reflect short-term investor pessimism or profit-taking after rallies. The nearly $1 billion withdrawal during this correction suggests some investors are exiting positions amid volatility. However, such outflows don’t necessarily indicate long-term bearishness.
What happens if Bitcoin breaks below $76,390?
A breakdown below the 50-week EMA at ~$76,390 could accelerate selling pressure, potentially leading to drops toward Fibonacci retracement levels at $57,690 or even $48,170—especially if macro conditions worsen.
How do Federal Reserve policies affect Bitcoin?
Bitcoin often behaves as a risk asset. When the Fed signals rate cuts or loose monetary policy, liquidity increases—often benefiting crypto. Conversely, rate hikes or policy uncertainty tend to reduce risk appetite and can weigh on BTC prices.
Is this correction normal for Bitcoin?
Absolutely. Bitcoin has historically experienced corrections of 20–30% after major rallies. These pullbacks help shake out weak hands and reset momentum for future growth phases.
👉 Monitor real-time BTC price action and prepare for the next breakout.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s current correction—down over 21% from its all-time high—is testing both investor resolve and technical frameworks. While ETF outflows and macroeconomic uncertainty pose risks, bullish models like the Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern suggest a potential path back toward $100K.
The coming weeks will be critical. A successful hold above $85,950 could confirm accumulation and set up another rally. Conversely, failure to defend key support may open the door to deeper declines.
Regardless of short-term direction, one thing remains clear: Bitcoin continues to evolve as an asset class—shaped by both technical forces and global economic currents. Investors who understand these dynamics stand the best chance of navigating what comes next.