Bitcoin’s momentum in April and May 2025 has reignited investor confidence, sparking renewed speculation of a major bullish breakout. Between April 9 and May 22, the leading cryptocurrency surged by 46.32%, with an 18.48% rally occurring just in the final stretch from May 5 to May 22. This sharp recovery not only lifted market sentiment but also pushed Bitcoin’s Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) to a compelling 31% by June 2025—up from a low of just 7% in April.
Such a dramatic shift underscores the dynamic nature of crypto markets and highlights the growing optimism among long-term investors.
BTC CAGR Rebounds from Early-Year Volatility
In early 2025, Bitcoin faced significant turbulence. While January saw a modest gain of 9.54%, February brought a steep 17.5% decline, followed by another dip of 2.19% in March. The price bottomed out at $74,446.79 in April, fueling concerns about a stalled bull cycle.
However, the market quickly reversed course. A wave of institutional buying, increased on-chain activity, and renewed retail interest fueled a powerful rebound. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. recently spotlighted this turnaround, noting that Bitcoin’s 4-year CAGR had climbed back to 31% by June—a strong indicator of restored market health.
“This sharp rebound shows how quickly the long-term trend can shift when strong buyer momentum enters the market,” Adler stated.
While encouraging, Adler also cautions that a 31% CAGR—though robust—is still below the peaks seen during previous bull markets. Historically, Bitcoin has achieved CAGRs exceeding 40–50% during full-blown bull runs, suggesting that the current rally may still have significant upside potential.
👉 Discover how market momentum is shaping the next phase of Bitcoin’s growth.
Could Bitcoin Hit $168K by October 2025?
One of the most talked-about projections comes from Adler himself: a potential Bitcoin price target of $168,000 by October 2025. This forecast hinges on sustained momentum in the futures market, increasing leverage usage, and continued macroeconomic tailwinds such as inflation hedging and global liquidity expansion.
Adler’s model draws from historical patterns observed during past bull cycles, particularly the post-halving rallies of 2017 and 2021. He notes that while each cycle is unique, the underlying drivers—scarcity, adoption, and speculative demand—remain consistent.
Key factors supporting this bullish outlook include:
- The Bitcoin halving event in early 2024, which reduced new supply issuance.
- Growing institutional adoption through ETFs and treasury allocations.
- Strengthening on-chain fundamentals, including rising active addresses and transaction volume.
- Increased use of leveraged trading, which can amplify upward price movements during strong trends.
While $168K is an ambitious target, it aligns with broader market expectations for a mid-cycle peak before any potential consolidation phase.
Risk-Adjusted Returns: Beyond CAGR
While CAGR provides a useful snapshot of long-term growth, it doesn’t account for volatility—a critical factor in crypto investing. In a discussion thread on X (formerly Twitter), user Manu proposed a more refined metric: dividing CAGR by standard deviation to calculate risk-adjusted returns.
Axel Adler Jr. endorsed this approach, explaining that it helps investors distinguish between sustainable growth and speculative spikes.
“The real inflection point comes when investors start taking profits based on expected returns.”
This insight points to a crucial market dynamic: as prices rise and expected returns become more predictable, large holders (often called "whales") may begin locking in gains. Adler warns that once daily trading volume exceeds 1 million BTC, the risk of a bearish correction increases significantly due to supply shocks from profit-taking.
Therefore, monitoring both price momentum and on-chain volume is essential for anticipating market turning points.
👉 Learn how to track key on-chain metrics before major market moves.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bitcoin’s current CAGR?
As of June 2025, Bitcoin’s 4-year Compound Annual Growth Rate stands at 31%, up from a low of 7% in April, reflecting strong recovery and renewed investor confidence.
Is a Bitcoin bull run confirmed?
While not officially confirmed, multiple indicators—including price action, CAGR rebound, futures open interest, and on-chain activity—suggest that Bitcoin is re-entering a bullish phase following early-year volatility.
Could Bitcoin reach $168K in 2025?
Yes—analyst Axel Adler Jr. projects a potential price target of $168,000 by October 2025, assuming continued momentum in leverage and futures markets. However, this depends on macro conditions and investor behavior.
What causes shifts in Bitcoin’s CAGR?
Bitcoin’s CAGR changes based on price performance over time. Major drivers include halving events, macroeconomic trends, regulatory developments, institutional adoption, and market sentiment.
How does trading volume affect Bitcoin’s price stability?
High trading volume can indicate strong interest, but when it surpasses critical thresholds (e.g., 1 million BTC traded daily), it may signal widespread profit-taking, potentially leading to short-term corrections.
What tools help predict Bitcoin’s next move?
Traders use a mix of technical analysis, on-chain data (like exchange inflows/outflows), funding rates, open interest, and macro indicators. Combining these with metrics like risk-adjusted CAGR improves forecasting accuracy.
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Final Thoughts: A Bull Run in Motion?
The resurgence of Bitcoin’s CAGR to 31%, coupled with strong price action and improving market structure, suggests that the bull run may be regaining steam after a rocky start to 2025. While risks remain—particularly around profit-taking and macro uncertainty—the overall trajectory appears increasingly positive.
For investors, the key lies in balancing optimism with caution. Monitoring not just price levels but also volume trends, on-chain behavior, and risk-adjusted performance metrics will be crucial in navigating the months ahead.
As history has shown, Bitcoin’s most powerful moves often follow periods of doubt and consolidation. With momentum building once again, the stage could be set for another historic leg upward—potentially toward six-figure valuations and beyond.
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