The Bitcoin market is buzzing with momentum. Trading near $62,000—and briefly spiking to $64,000—the world’s leading cryptocurrency is capturing attention like never before. But with such strong price action and growing mainstream adoption, investors are asking a critical question: Where are we in this Bitcoin cycle?
Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy, offers a data-driven and insightful answer. Drawing from on-chain metrics, institutional trends, and macro-level financial shifts, Thorn paints a picture of a market still in its early stages—despite the impressive gains already seen.
A Market Unlike Any Before
This Bitcoin cycle stands apart from past bull runs—not just in scale, but in structural transformation.
“Effectively, the bull runs of 2017 and 2020 hadn’t yet begun at this stage in Bitcoin’s supply schedule.”
To illustrate the contrast, Thorn highlights Bitcoin’s price 52 days before each halving:
- 52 days before 2nd Halving (July 9, 2016): $455.22 (–59.86% from ATH)
- 52 days before 3rd Halving (May 11, 2020): $6,174 (–68.56% from ATH)
- 52 days before 4th Halving (April 20, 2024): $59,330 (–12.16% from ATH)
The current cycle began from a position of strength—far from a post-bottom recovery. This signals a fundamental shift: Bitcoin is no longer emerging from obscurity. It’s now embedded in institutional portfolios and global financial discourse.
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The Game-Changer: Spot Bitcoin ETFs
At the heart of this transformation lies the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. These products have unlocked unprecedented access for traditional investors and wealth managers.
Thorn notes a staggering data point:
“The BTC ETFs took in a whopping net $576 million of Bitcoin yesterday (February 27), with BlackRock alone seeing $520 million of inflows—its largest ever day.”
This isn’t just noise—it’s a structural shift. For the first time, mainstream investors can gain exposure to Bitcoin through familiar brokerage accounts, retirement funds, and advisory platforms—without managing private keys or navigating exchanges.
The Untapped Wealth Management Market
Galaxy’s October 2023 report, “Sizing the Market for the Bitcoin ETF,” reveals a massive opportunity:
- $27.1 trillion in assets managed by broker-dealers
- $11.9 trillion held by banks
- $9.3 trillion under registered investment advisors
That’s $48.3 trillion** in total U.S. wealth management assets—with roughly **$40 trillion still without access to spot Bitcoin ETFs.
This represents not just potential inflows, but a generational shift in asset allocation. As more platforms integrate Bitcoin ETFs, millions of retail investors will gain passive exposure—fueling sustained demand.
Long-Term Holders: The Backbone of Stability
Amid the volatility and speculation, one group remains remarkably resilient: long-term holders.
Thorn emphasizes that approximately 75% of Bitcoin’s total supply is held by investors with “diamond hands”—those who have held through multiple market cycles. This cohort acts as a market stabilizer, reducing circulating supply and absorbing sell-side pressure during rallies.
Their continued holding behavior suggests strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition—especially as macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation concerns persist globally.
MVRV Z-Score: A Window Into Market Valuation
To assess whether Bitcoin is overbought or still has room to run, Thorn turns to the MVRV Z-Score, a metric that compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value (the average price at which all coins were last moved).
- A high Z-Score (>6) typically signals overvaluation and potential tops.
- A low score suggests undervaluation and accumulation phases.
Currently, the MVRV Z-Score sits around 2—far below previous cycle peaks of 8 in 2021 and over 12 in earlier cycles.
This indicates that despite recent price gains, the market is not overheating. In fact, it suggests we’re still in the early to mid-phase of this cycle.
Debunking the “Speedrunning” Narrative
Some analysts worry that the market is “speedrunning” the cycle—reaching peak levels too quickly due to ETF-fueled demand. Thorn firmly disagrees.
“This time is different.”
The introduction of ETFs isn’t accelerating the cycle—it’s redefining it. Traditional patterns based on retail speculation no longer apply. Instead, we’re witnessing a slow-motion institutional onboarding, where capital flows are steady, persistent, and increasingly diversified.
Moreover, the full impact of ETFs won’t be visible until broader wealth management platforms adopt them—and until major asset managers disclose their positions via 13F filings.
Thorn anticipates that the April round of 13F disclosures could reveal significant Bitcoin allocations by household-name investment firms—a development that would further legitimize BTC as a core asset class.
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We Haven’t Even Begun
So, where are we?
According to Thorn: we haven’t even begun to reach the heights this cycle is likely to achieve.
Several catalysts support this bullish outlook:
- Upcoming Halving Event: Historically, halvings (which reduce new BTC supply by 50%) have preceded massive price increases 12–18 months later.
- Institutional Adoption: As more financial advisors offer Bitcoin ETFs, inflows will grow exponentially.
- Macroeconomic Tailwinds: With rising debt levels and monetary expansion globally, Bitcoin’s fixed supply (21 million cap) becomes increasingly attractive as a hedge.
- Market Structure Evolution: The shift from speculative trading to long-term holding reduces volatility and strengthens fundamentals.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Are we already at the top of this Bitcoin cycle?
A: Unlikely. Key metrics like the MVRV Z-Score (~2) remain well below historical cycle peaks (8–12), suggesting significant room for growth.
Q: How do spot Bitcoin ETFs change the game?
A: They provide regulated, accessible exposure to Bitcoin for millions of traditional investors—unlocking trillions in dormant capital from wealth management firms.
Q: What role do long-term holders play in this cycle?
A: They stabilize the market by holding ~75% of supply, reducing sell pressure and amplifying scarcity as demand rises.
Q: Could institutional adoption slow down?
A: While short-term flows may fluctuate, the long-term trend is upward. With $40 trillion in wealth management assets still unexposed, adoption is just beginning.
Q: When will we see another all-time high for Bitcoin?
A: Many analysts expect new highs within 12–18 months post-halving (late 2025), driven by reduced supply and sustained institutional demand.
Q: Is retail investor participation still important?
A: Yes—but this cycle is defined by institutional entry. Retail activity will amplify momentum, but institutions are now the primary drivers.
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Final Thoughts: Bitcoin Is Prime Time
Alex Thorn’s analysis makes one thing clear: Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset. It’s entering prime time—backed by data, embraced by institutions, and integrated into mainstream finance.
The combination of ETF-driven demand, structural scarcity from halving events, and growing recognition as a legitimate store of value positions Bitcoin for what could be its most transformative cycle yet.
As Thorn puts it:
“Bitcoin is prime time now, and while it might be hard to believe, things are just starting to get exciting.”
With the fourth halving on the horizon and trillions in dry powder waiting on the sidelines, the next chapter of Bitcoin’s story promises to be its most impactful—one defined not by hype, but by real-world adoption and enduring value.
At press time, BTC traded at $62,065.