Coinbase Is the 'Amazon of Crypto Services', Price Target Raised to $510: Bernstein

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Coinbase Poised for Growth as Bernstein Upgrades Price Target to $510

Bernstein analysts have significantly raised their price target for Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) to $510, citing robust expansion in the company’s derivatives business and accelerating non-trading revenue streams. This new target represents a major leap from the previous $310 forecast, underscoring growing confidence in Coinbase’s transformation into a full-stack crypto financial services platform.

The revised valuation reflects Bernstein’s belief that Coinbase is evolving beyond a simple cryptocurrency exchange into a comprehensive ecosystem—akin to how Amazon reshaped e-commerce and cloud computing. The firm now applies a 25x price-to-earnings multiple to Coinbase’s estimated 2027 earnings, up from a prior 21x on 2026 figures. This adjustment aligns Coinbase’s valuation with leading fintech and brokerage peers, signaling market recognition of its maturing business model.

Key Drivers Behind the Upgrade

Bernstein highlighted several key factors fueling this optimistic outlook:

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The research firm now projects Coinbase will generate approximately **$14.1 billion in total revenue by 2027**, up from an earlier estimate of $12.4 billion. This upward revision is driven by stronger-than-expected performance across multiple verticals, particularly in high-margin segments like staking and on-chain infrastructure.

Expanding Derivatives Footprint

One of the most compelling developments cited by Bernstein is the rapid growth in Coinbase’s derivatives business. The share of perpetual futures volume on the platform surged from 2.4% in Q4 FY24 to 4.0% in Q1 FY25. More notably, the ratio of perpetual futures to spot trading volumes jumped from 0.2 to 1.9 during the same period—indicating a fundamental shift in user behavior and product demand.

This growth suggests that traders are increasingly using Coinbase not just for basic buying and selling but for advanced trading strategies, including leverage and hedging. As regulatory clarity improves and product offerings expand, Bernstein expects this trend to continue, further boosting profitability.

Building the Amazon of Crypto Financial Services

Bernstein describes Coinbase as the “Amazon of crypto financial services”—a one-stop platform offering integrated solutions across trading, custody, lending, staking, and developer tools. Much like Amazon evolved from an online bookstore into a global tech giant with AWS, logistics, and Prime services, Coinbase is building a diversified ecosystem that serves both retail and institutional clients.

This diversification reduces reliance on volatile spot trading revenues and enhances long-term sustainability. For example:

These initiatives collectively strengthen Coinbase’s moat in the competitive crypto landscape.

Institutional Momentum and Regulatory Clarity

Despite past regulatory challenges, Bernstein notes that Coinbase’s market leadership is solidifying—especially following recent developments that eased enforcement pressures from U.S. regulators. With clearer rules emerging and increased institutional participation, Coinbase remains the most trusted regulated exchange in the United States.

Its dominance in the U.S. spot trading market gives it a strategic advantage, while its expanding suite of institutional-grade tools—such as prime brokerage, custody solutions, and API access—further cements its role as a critical infrastructure provider.

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Financial Outlook and Earnings Leverage

Bernstein has also upgraded its earnings forecast, now estimating adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $20.38 by 2027, up from previous projections. This improvement is attributed to strong operating leverage—the ability to grow profits faster than revenues due to fixed-cost infrastructure.

As user growth and transaction volumes rise, much of the additional revenue flows directly to the bottom line, enhancing margins. This scalability is a hallmark of platform businesses and supports higher valuation multiples.

FAQ: Understanding Coinbase’s Growth Trajectory

Q: Why is Bernstein so bullish on Coinbase now?
A: Bernstein sees Coinbase transforming into a diversified financial platform with strong growth in staking, stablecoins, derivatives, and its Base blockchain—all contributing to more predictable, high-margin revenue.

Q: What does “Amazon of crypto” mean?
A: It refers to Coinbase’s strategy of offering a wide range of integrated services—similar to how Amazon expanded beyond retail into cloud computing and logistics—creating a self-reinforcing ecosystem.

Q: How important is the Base blockchain to Coinbase’s future?
A: Very. Base drives developer engagement, increases user retention, and opens new revenue streams through transaction fees and dApp integrations.

Q: Is Coinbase still dependent on crypto market cycles?
A: While market conditions affect trading volumes, Coinbase’s expanding non-trading businesses reduce cyclicality and improve resilience during downturns.

Q: Can Coinbase sustain its leadership amid competition?
A: Yes—its regulatory compliance, brand trust, institutional relationships, and product breadth give it a durable competitive edge over unregulated or less-diversified rivals.

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Final Thoughts

Bernstein’s bold price target revision reflects a fundamental reassessment of Coinbase’s potential. No longer viewed solely as a crypto exchange, the company is emerging as a foundational pillar of the digital asset economy.

With accelerating revenue diversification, rising institutional adoption, and powerful network effects from its ecosystem plays like Base and USDC, Coinbase appears well-positioned for sustained growth through 2027 and beyond.

As the line between traditional finance and crypto continues to blur, platforms that offer secure, compliant, and comprehensive services will lead the next wave of innovation—and Bernstein believes Coinbase is at the forefront.

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