Bitcoin is flashing powerful bullish signals as it surges past critical resistance levels, with growing momentum pointing toward a potential rally beyond $125,000—and possibly as high as $150,000—by the third quarter of 2025. After consolidating above the $95,000 mark, BTC is now positioned at the edge of a breakout that could define the next phase of the current bull cycle.
Technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and veteran trader analyses all converge on one conclusion: we may be witnessing the early stages of a parabolic move. While past cycles have seen Bitcoin peak around $100,000, this cycle could rewrite expectations due to stronger fundamentals, increased institutional adoption, and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
Key Technical Patterns Suggest Strong Upside Momentum
One of the most compelling technical formations currently in play is the ascending triangle breakout visible on Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart. This pattern, characterized by a flat resistance level and rising support, typically precedes strong upward moves when confirmed.
Captain Faibik, a respected market technician, highlighted that Bitcoin broke above the $95,000 resistance after nine days of consolidation. The breakout candle was accompanied by strong volume—an important confirmation signal that buyer conviction is increasing.
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Based on the measured move principle derived from this triangle pattern, a short-term target of **$98,900** comes into focus. More importantly, sustained trading above $95,000 suggests that deeper bullish momentum is building. Should this level hold as new support, the path to $114,000—and beyond—becomes increasingly likely.
MVRV Bands Reveal Critical Support and Resistance Zones
On-chain analyst Ali Martinez has drawn attention to the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Pricing Bands, a powerful tool for identifying overvalued and undervalued zones in Bitcoin’s price history.
Currently, BTC is hovering around the +0.5σ band at $95,870**. A close and hold above this level would signal strong bullish continuation. The next major resistance lies at the **+1.0σ band near $114,230, a zone historically associated with profit-taking and short-term corrections.
However, if Bitcoin successfully breaks through this band with conviction, it could trigger a momentum cascade similar to those seen in late 2017 and late 2020. Conversely, failure to sustain above $95,870 might lead to a pullback toward **$77,500**, where the -1.0σ band currently resides.
This data-driven framework helps investors distinguish between healthy consolidation and potential reversal risks—critical insight during volatile phases of the market cycle.
Peter Brandt’s Parabolic Trendline: A Path to $150K?
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has long been known for his accurate long-term trendline analysis. Recently, he pointed out that Bitcoin has approached its previously broken parabolic trendline—a key inflection point in prior bull markets.
If BTC regains and sustains above this trendline slope, it could validate the start of the next explosive leg upward. Brandt’s analysis suggests a target range of $125,000 to $150,000, aligning with the exponential growth patterns observed in previous cycles.
Historically, Bitcoin rallies follow a J-curve trajectory—slow initial gains followed by rapid vertical moves. Given current macro conditions—including potential rate cuts, quantitative easing signals from major central banks, and increased spot ETF inflows—the environment is ripe for such a parabolic surge.
Of course, such rallies don’t last forever. Past cycles show that after reaching all-time highs, Bitcoin often corrects by over 50%. A peak near $150,000 could eventually give way to a post-cycle dip down to **$60,000–$75,000**, consistent with historical mean reversion patterns.
Market Snapshot: Bullish Energy Builds
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $97,174**, reflecting a **3.3% gain** over the past 24 hours and a **4.27% weekly increase**. With a market capitalization nearing **$1.93 trillion and 24-hour trading volume exceeding $29 billion, liquidity and participation remain robust.
These figures underscore growing confidence among institutional and retail investors alike. The continued strength in trading volume reduces the likelihood of a “fakeout” breakout and supports the idea of sustainable upward pressure.
Moreover, derivatives data shows healthy funding rates without signs of excessive leverage—a sign that the rally isn't being driven by speculative mania alone.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is an ascending triangle breakout?
An ascending triangle is a bullish chart pattern formed when price action creates higher lows while testing a consistent resistance level. A breakout occurs when price closes above resistance with strong volume, often leading to a rapid upward move. In Bitcoin’s case, breaking above $95,000 confirms this pattern.
Why is $95,870 so important?
This level corresponds to the +0.5σ MVRV band—a statistically significant threshold indicating fair value with slight premium. Holding above it suggests investor confidence is strong enough to push toward higher resistance zones like $114K.
What drives Bitcoin toward $150K instead of $100K?
Several factors differentiate this cycle: broader institutional adoption via spot ETFs, tighter supply dynamics due to halving effects, and stronger global liquidity expectations. These elements amplify upward momentum beyond previous cycle highs.
Could Bitcoin drop after hitting $150K?
Yes. Historical patterns show that after reaching cycle peaks, Bitcoin typically undergoes deep corrections—often over 50%. A move to $150K could be followed by a decline to $60K–$75K as profit-taking and market rebalancing occur.
How reliable are MVRV bands for predicting price?
MVRV bands are based on realized capitalization and standard deviations, making them statistically robust tools for identifying overbought or oversold conditions. While not perfect, they provide valuable context when combined with other technical and on-chain indicators.
Is technical analysis still relevant in modern crypto markets?
Absolutely. While fundamentals shape long-term trends, technical analysis helps identify entry and exit points. Patterns like ascending triangles or trendline breaks remain effective because they reflect collective trader psychology and order flow behavior.
Final Outlook: The Path Beyond $100K
While many investors fixate on the symbolic $100,000 milestone, the real story lies beyond it. The current technical structure suggests that if Bitcoin maintains its footing above $95,000, the next major targets are $98,900 (short-term)**, **$114,230 (mid-term), and ultimately $125K–$150K (Q3 2025).
This isn’t just speculation—it’s supported by confluence across multiple analytical frameworks: classical chart patterns, on-chain valuation models, and veteran trader insights.
👉 Stay prepared for what comes next—monitor live markets and act before the next surge hits.
As always, risk management remains crucial. Even in strong bull markets, volatility can lead to sharp drawdowns. Traders should use stop-loss strategies, avoid over-leveraging, and keep emotions in check.
Bitcoin’s journey from $97K to $150K won’t be linear—but if history rhymes and momentum holds, we may look back at this phase as the calm before the storm.
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