XRP has long stood out in the cryptocurrency market for its distinctive price behavior—characterized by rapid surges, sharp corrections, and waves of investor enthusiasm. As market participants continue to monitor its trajectory, one key metric is emerging as a powerful predictor of future price action: XRP dominance (XRP.d). Analysts suggest that by studying historical patterns and dominance trends, investors can better anticipate potential breakout levels and optimal exit points.
With XRP currently trading around $2.44 and boasting a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $4.12 billion, momentum is building. Crypto analyst Maelius highlights that XRP’s price typically moves in two major waves, separated by a correction, followed by a final surge before a broader market pullback. Understanding this rhythm—and how XRP.d reflects shifting investor sentiment—could be crucial for timing entries and exits effectively.
The Two-Wave Pattern Behind XRP’s Price Surges
Historically, XRP’s bull runs follow a consistent pattern: an initial surge draws attention, followed by a pullback that tests investor confidence. Then, a second wave builds on renewed optimism, often fueled by media coverage and retail participation. This second leg tends to attract latecomers who FOMO (fear of missing out) into the market near the top.
Maelius points to the 2017 rally as a textbook example. During that cycle, XRP experienced what’s known as Wave 3 (W3), marked by two distinct upward spikes. The first lifted the price from under $0.25 to over $1, followed by a correction. Then came the second surge—driven largely by retail inflows—that pushed XRP toward its all-time high near $3.84.
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If today’s cycle mirrors past behavior, Maelius projects that the upcoming W3 could drive XRP toward a target range of $10 to $13. This estimate aligns with key psychological resistance levels and historical price structures. While ambitious, such a move isn’t unprecedented when considering macroeconomic shifts, increased institutional interest, and potential regulatory clarity.
Why XRP Dominance Matters
XRP dominance (XRP.d) measures XRP’s market capitalization relative to the total cryptocurrency market. It serves as a barometer for investor appetite specifically toward XRP versus other digital assets. When XRP.d rises, it indicates capital is rotating into XRP—often ahead of or during strong price rallies.
Currently, XRP.d is approaching a critical resistance zone—a level it has struggled to breach in prior cycles. According to Maelius, every time XRP.d neared this zone in the past, it coincided with the peak of XRP’s outperformance. Once dominance stalls or reverses, the broader crypto market often enters a consolidation or downturn phase.
This makes XRP.d not just a performance indicator but also a leading signal for trend exhaustion. If dominance fails to break above resistance—despite rising prices—it may suggest weakening underlying strength, even amid bullish headlines.
Moreover, if the total crypto market cap reaches the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level—a common technical target in extended bull markets—XRP could see amplified momentum. Under ideal conditions, conservative price estimates range from $13 to $26, though sustaining such levels would require unprecedented adoption and sustained demand.
However, Maelius cautions that the probability of XRP maintaining dominance at these elevated levels is low. Past data shows that once dominance peaks, capital tends to rotate into altcoins or stablecoins, leading to sideways or declining prices.
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Strategic Exit Planning: When to Take Profits
One of the most challenging aspects of investing in volatile assets like XRP is knowing when to sell. Many investors capture early gains but hold too long, only to watch profits erode during sharp corrections.
Maelius recommends a gradual profit-taking strategy as XRP approaches the $10–$13 range. At these levels, the risk-to-reward ratio begins to deteriorate significantly. Parabolic price movements often precede major reversals, especially when not supported by fundamental developments or sustained dominance growth.
Key indicators to watch include:
- Stalling momentum in XRP.d near resistance
- Declining relative volume despite price highs
- Increased whale selling activity
- Broader market saturation signals, such as Bitcoin dominance reversal or DeFi outflows
Selling in tranches—say, 25% at $10, another 25% at $11.50, and the remainder near $13—can help lock in gains while leaving room for upside participation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is XRP dominance (XRP.d), and why does it matter?
A: XRP.d measures XRP’s market cap share compared to the total crypto market. Rising dominance suggests increased investor focus on XRP, often preceding or confirming price rallies. Falling or stalling dominance may signal weakening momentum.
Q: Is a $10–$13 price target realistic for XRP?
A: While ambitious, this target aligns with historical wave patterns and Fibonacci extensions seen in prior bull markets. Achieving it would require strong market conditions, continued adoption of Ripple’s technology, and favorable regulatory outcomes.
Q: Should I sell all my XRP at once when it hits $10?
A: Most analysts recommend gradual selling rather than an all-at-once exit. Taking profits in stages reduces emotional decision-making and allows you to benefit from potential further upside while protecting gains.
Q: How reliable are technical patterns like the two-wave surge?
A: While no pattern guarantees future results, XRP has consistently followed this structure across multiple cycles. Technical analysis works best when combined with on-chain data, sentiment analysis, and macro trends.
Q: Can XRP reach $26 as some estimates suggest?
A: A move to $26 is possible under extreme bullish conditions—such as a massive influx of institutional capital or a major regulatory win—but it remains less probable due to market cap constraints and dominance limitations.
Q: What tools can I use to track XRP.d and price trends?
A: Platforms like TradingView offer real-time charts for XRP.d and advanced technical indicators. Pairing these with on-chain analytics from sources like Glassnode or CryptoQuant can provide deeper insights.
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Final Thoughts
XRP’s unique market behavior—driven by institutional ties, regulatory developments, and strong community support—makes it one of the most watched cryptocurrencies during bull cycles. By combining technical structure analysis with dominance trends, investors gain a clearer picture of where we might be in the current cycle.
While a move toward $10–$13 appears plausible based on historical precedent and analyst projections, prudence remains essential. As prices climb into parabolic territory, so does risk. Monitoring XRP.d closely and adhering to a disciplined profit-taking plan can help investors navigate volatility and preserve hard-earned returns.
The path forward will depend not only on technical momentum but also on broader market dynamics, adoption rates, and regulatory clarity. Staying informed—and knowing when to act—is key in the fast-moving world of digital assets.