Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Average Historical Returns in February Rank Third-Highest

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Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hold steady above the $104,000 mark as of Friday, regaining momentum after briefly dipping below $98,000 earlier in the week. The recovery followed a bounce off its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling sustained bullish interest despite short-term volatility. While macroeconomic factors and global tech market shifts have influenced sentiment, historical performance data suggests February could deliver strong returns for BTC traders—averaging 15.66%, the third-highest among all months.

This article explores the recent market dynamics affecting Bitcoin’s price, including its growing correlation with traditional equities, the impact of U.S. macroeconomic data, and structural parallels to past bull cycles. We’ll also examine what February may hold for Bitcoin based on historical trends and on-chain behavior.

Bitcoin’s Correlation With Traditional Markets and AI Disruptions

Bitcoin began the week with a sharp correction, dropping to a low of $97,777**—its weakest level since December—before rebounding strongly. The pullback triggered widespread liquidations across the crypto derivatives market, with **$860.55 million wiped out in a single day, including nearly $260 million in Bitcoin positions alone, according to CoinGlass data.

👉 Discover how global tech shifts are reshaping crypto markets

This selloff coincided with broader risk-asset declines, driven by news surrounding DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup. Over the weekend, reports emerged about DeepSeek’s open-source, cost-efficient large language model (LLM), which analysts believe could challenge U.S. AI dominance—particularly affecting tech giant Nvidia, whose stock plunged 17% during the week.

K33 Research highlighted in its “Ahead of the Curve” report that Bitcoin is increasingly moving in tandem with U.S. equities, especially high-growth tech stocks. While BTC fell only 2.6% compared to Nvidia’s steep drop and a 3% Nasdaq decline, the event underscores a growing interdependence between crypto and traditional financial markets.

Notably, CME Bitcoin futures saw premiums fall into negative territory for the first time since August 2023, signaling risk-off behavior among institutional traders. Open interest dropped by 17,225 BTC, reflecting aggressive de-risking. Although premiums have since recovered slightly, this shift suggests caution ahead—especially with January futures expiring and reducing overall market exposure.

How U.S. Macroeconomic Data Influenced Bitcoin This Week

Bitcoin found moderate support from key U.S. economic releases. After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, BTC climbed 2.37%, despite the Fed holding interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% and adopting a slightly hawkish tone due to persistent inflation concerns.

The Fed acknowledged a resilient labor market but expressed uncertainty about future rate cuts, contributing to rising Treasury yields. The 10-year yield rose to 4.581%, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) gained 0.17%, reaching 108.10—yet Bitcoin still managed to advance.

On Thursday, preliminary Q4 2024 GDP data revealed U.S. economic growth slowed to 2.3%, below expectations of 2.6% and down from Q3’s 3.1%. This weaker-than-expected growth reduced demand for the dollar and benefited risk-on assets like Bitcoin, reinforcing BTC’s role as an alternative store of value during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.

On-Chain Trends Mirror the 2015–2018 Bull Cycle

Glassnode’s latest on-chain analysis draws compelling parallels between the current market phase and the 2015–2018 bull cycle. While overall growth has been more measured compared to previous cycles—evidenced by a 2.1x increase in Realized Cap versus the 2021 cycle’s peak of 5.7x—the current trajectory aligns closely with earlier maturation stages of past rallies.

This suggests room for further expansion, particularly if investor euphoria accelerates later in the cycle.

A commonly cited narrative—that declining exchange balances signal an imminent supply shock—is being reevaluated. While Bitcoin holdings on centralized exchanges have dropped from 3.1 million BTC in July 2024 to just 2.7 million BTC, much of this outflow stems from coins being transferred to ETF custodial wallets, not long-term holder accumulation.

👉 See how ETF inflows are transforming Bitcoin’s supply dynamics

Instead, the primary driver remains wealth rotation: the transfer of assets from long-term holders to new investors. Current patterns resemble those seen in late 2017 and early 2021, indicating that the market may be approaching a demand exhaustion phase—a period often followed by consolidation or increased HODLing behavior.

What Does History Say About Bitcoin in February?

Bitcoin kicked off 2025 with momentum, reaching an all-time high of $109,588 on January 20 and closing the month with an 11% gain. Looking ahead, historical data offers encouraging signals for February.

On average, February has delivered the third-highest monthly returns for Bitcoin traders at 15.66%, surpassed only by November and April. This seasonal strength could provide a tailwind for BTC in the coming weeks, especially if macro conditions stabilize and institutional inflows resume.

Technical Outlook: Can Bitcoin Retest All-Time Highs?

After finding support at its 50-day EMA ($98,845)**, Bitcoin rebounded sharply, closing above **$104,700 on Thursday. As of Friday, it trades near $104,000, maintaining bullish structure.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 57, having crossed back above the neutral 50 level—indicating renewed buying pressure. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains flat, reflecting market indecision. A bullish MACD crossover would confirm upward momentum and potentially trigger a retest of January’s peak near $109,588.

Conversely, a daily close below $100,000** and the 50-day EMA could open the door for further downside, with next major support near **$90,000.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why is February historically strong for Bitcoin?
A: While no single factor explains it definitively, February often coincides with increased institutional inflows, tax season positioning, and post-holiday market re-engagement—all contributing to stronger price action.

Q: Does Bitcoin still act as a hedge against stock market declines?
A: Not consistently. Recent correlation with tech stocks—especially during events like Nvidia’s drop—shows BTC is increasingly influenced by broader risk sentiment rather than acting as a pure safe haven.

Q: What causes liquidations in crypto markets?
A: High leverage positions are automatically closed when prices move sharply against traders. A rapid drop or spike can trigger cascading liquidations, amplifying volatility.

Q: Are declining exchange balances bullish for Bitcoin?
A: Not necessarily. While reduced supply on exchanges can limit selling pressure, much of the recent decline is due to ETF-related custodial transfers—not individual accumulation.

Q: How reliable are historical return averages for trading decisions?
A: They offer useful context but shouldn’t be used in isolation. Market conditions evolve, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results—always combine with technical and on-chain analysis.

👉 Explore real-time data to refine your trading strategy

Core Keywords:

With seasonal tailwinds, supportive on-chain trends, and resilient technical structure, February could prove pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin extends its rally toward new highs—or enters a consolidation phase before the next leg up.